560
FXUS62 KCAE 021428
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture continues to increase over the region through mid week.
This will lead to isolated to scattered convection mainly in the
afternoons and evenings. A cold front approaches the Southeast late
in the week leading to increasing rain chances. Temperatures should
rise to near normal values over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows that clouds have generally spread across
almost the entire forecast area. Radar continues to show some light
rain showers across the region, with ground sites generally
reporting a few hundredths up to two tenths of an inch of
accumulation. Showers will continue to be supported by a few
shortwaves moving through the flow today, but instability is
generally lacking this morning. However, instability increases
somewhat for this afternoon, especially since dewpoints have been
running a bit higher than initially forecast. Warm air advection has
also warmed temperatures into the low to mid 70s already, despite
the cloud cover. There are some breaks in the clouds across eastern
GA which should move into the region allowing for ample heating to
generate 700-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, so still think there is a chance
for some thunder this afternoon as showers redevelop. We should end
up in the low to mid 80s for highs, warmer toward the coast and
cooler toward the upstate.

The highest coverage of activity is favored for the western Midlands
and Upper CSRA. As daytime heating wanes overnight, the chances for
precipitation decrease as well. Overnight lows are likely to remain
in the mid 60s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...Long wave upper trough will extend
from the Mid Atlantic south through the Carolinas early in the
day then shift to the coast in the afternoon. The Bermuda high
will be offshore with weak south- westerly flow across the area.
The moisture appears to decrease somewhat through the day with
the higher precipitable water shifting to the east. Models
suggest relatively weak to moderate instability instability in
the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s
with warm advection. Relatively steep low to mid level lapse
rates noted with inverted V sounding profile. Mid level lapse
rates are weak and there may be a developing cap in the
afternoon as trough moves toward the coast. The ECMWF does show
a short wave moving through the area and the GEM shows a weaker
one. The lift appears focused in the Pee Dee. Perhaps a sea
breeze front may move inland during the afternoon to provide
lift. The CAMS show limited convective coverage...i.e., widely
scattered. NBM focus pops in the east. Cut pops back slightly
from NBM, but expect some isolated showers in the morning then
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon mainly
in the east. Any convection should diminish quickly in the early
eventing. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mid level ridge appears stronger
Tuesday and instability appears weaker than Monday although low
to mid level lapse rates appear steep given temperatures
continue to climb to around 90 degrees with continued warm
advection. Think there may be a strong cap. Moisture decreases
as well with precipitable water down to 1.3 inches. Trigger
lacking although another sea breeze front is possible. Cut pops
to slight chance most areas in the afternoon with chance along
the 95 corridor. Low temps a little warmer, mainly upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble models have been consistent. Upper level ridge flattens
early in the period and shifts east. Moisture increases again
across the region especially by Thursday with models indicating
high probability of values > 1.5 inches, possibly near 2 inches.
Deep upper low over south central Canada will be building
southeast with generally northwest flow across the southeast.
Embedded short wave troughs will be moving through the area as
trough develops in the southeast. At the surface, a cold front
is expected from the Ohio Valley southwest to the mid
Mississippi valley in the day Thursday. The front will be moving
toward the southeast late week, moving into the area Friday.
Scattered convection expected Wednesday and Thursday. Ensembles
indicating chance of moderate instability with increasing
triggers for thunderstorms. Deep layer shear becomes moderately
strong by Thursday as the front approaches from the northwest.
Stronger lift possible with diffluent flow aloft. So, at this
time marginal severe threat. Drier air moving in by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Extensive cloud cover remains over the region with scattered light -
SHRA moving from southwest to northeast. However, restrictions have
yet to be reported and so have not included VSBY restrictions in the
TAFs. After this wave of activity passes, additional chances for
scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA are possible again this afternoon
and evening. Have included VCSH at CUB/CAE/AGS/DNL to account for
this, but more fine tuning will likely be needed in future updates.
Surface winds are expected to generally be SLY/SELY at less than 10
kts through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with
intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$