877
FXUS62 KCAE 061449
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1049 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Southeast from late tonight
to early Friday leading to showers and thunderstorms. Drier air
follows the front late this week into the weekend. Another cold
front possible early next week, with rain potential increasing
ahead of it late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:45 AM Update: Satellite imagery is showing some scattered
cumuli beginning to develop. These clouds are not looking too
agitated for the time being. Temperatures have climbed into the
lower to mid 80s as of 10 am across the forecast area. As
daytime heating continues, expected these to become more
agitated in increase in coverage. Forecast remains generally the
same for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon
and evening. A few of which could be strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the primary threat. As such, the SPC did
expand the Marginal Risk (1/5) to include the northern half of
our forecast area. The main timing for thunderstorms looks to be
from 2 pm through 10 pm.

Early-morning discussion: A cold front will approach the region
today with warm, moist advection over the forecast area prior
to it crossing the forecast area tonight. GOES16 derived PWAT
values show 1.75 to 1.9 inches over the Deep South. A pre-
frontal trough will provide convergence for convection to
develop this afternoon in the conditionally unstable airmass. A
shortwave will also move over the area this afternoon,
supporting convective development. Mixed layer CAPE values are
likely to be between 1000 to 2000 J/kg based on SPC SREF
probabilities. With moderate instability, above normal
atmospheric moisture and upper support from a shortwave trough
we would expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
in the afternoon. An inverted V sounding also indicates some
potential for damaging downburst winds with DCAPE values around
750 J/kg. With very weak deep layer shear the biggest concern is
isolated downburst winds from pulse type storms and potentially
localized flash flooding. Convection should linger overnight as
the front works its way through the region. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows tonight around 70
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will see the cold front moving east of the cwa, allowing
drier air to move back into the region. After the past few days
of rainfall, a return to drier weather will occur through this
period of the forecast as high pressure settles into the area.
With the expected sunshine, highs during the afternoon are still
expected to reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday a cold front will begin moving towards the region from
the north. Although the day will start off dry, increasing
moisture may allow at least some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures become a little bit warmer ahead of the front,
with highs in lower to mid 90s. The front may end up stalling
somewhere across the area early next week. This will end up
keeping at least some scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. There is some
uncertainty with afternoon temperatures too, due to the
potential mixture of clouds and sun, rainfall, and eventual
position of the front. For now most guidance keeps readings
close to or just above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceiling restrictions at all TAF sites this morning with ample
low-level moisture in place. This will continue over the next
few hours until 15 or 16Z. KCAE VAD wind profile shows a 25 kt
LLJ in place this morning that will help to return conditions
back to VFR by mid- morning.

A cold front will approach the region today. Expect scattered
convection ahead of the front, beginning in the afternoon. It
will also be gusty at times with winds gusting to 20 to 25 kts
out of the SW. Convection will likely continue into the evening
as the front works its way through the region early Friday
morning. There may be another period of ceiling restrictions
tonight before the front moves east of the area but confidence
is low. Near the end of the 24 hour TAF period we will see a
wind shift behind the front with winds becoming W then NW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier weather Friday through the
weekend. Moisture increases early next week which may lead to
early morning fog or stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$