171
FXUS62 KCAE 210629
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday
keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming
temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region
Friday and is expected to stall just north of the area
resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will lead to fair
weather today. Satellite derived PWATs below an inch across the
area with drier air moving in aloft as indicated on water vapor
imagery. With some lingering low level moisture and a subsidence
inversion, some patchy fog does remain possible. Outside of
this, expect a rather unremarkable weather day with a few
cumulus clouds and highs right around seasonal average, in the
mid-80s. Tonight low temperatures will be similar to the night
before, in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft and at the surface will remain in place
across the region through midweek with upper ridging overhead
and surface ridge extending from the Mid-Atlantic coast through
the Carolinas. The atmosphere remains stable and dry during this
period with PWATs around 60-80 percent of normal and forecast
soundings showing a prominent subsidence inversion and
significant dry air in the mid and lower levels.

Therefore, no rainfall in the forecast through Wednesday night
as it should all remain well to the west associated with a low
pressure system lifting northeastward into the western Great
Lakes and cold front pushing into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys.
Temperatures will be warming into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees near to above normal and overnight lows also above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues to favor one more rain free day on
Thursday under the influence of upper ridging with forecast
soundings showing a slightly weaker but still prominent
subsidence inversion. Surface ridge axis will be east of the
forecast area offshore on Thursday allowing for southerly flow
and PWATs are expected to rise slightly above normal with the
axis of highest moisture pooled along an approaching frontal
boundary over the southern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
states.

Friday through the weekend, atmospheric moisture should remain
above normal and the upper ridge flattens in response to
shortwave energy moving through the 500mb flow which transitions
more zonal during this period. Above normal PWATs combining
with increasing instability and a series of shortwaves moving
over the region through the weekend will keep chances of rain in
the forecast. While it is still too far out to have much
confidence in possible severe weather, 60-70 percent of the
ensemble guidance shows SBCAPE values greater than 500 j/kg.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the
period with highs in the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft along with a lack of
moisture will generally support VFR conditions through the TAF
period. The exception to this may be some shallow, brief
visibility restrictions at fog-prone AGS early this morning.
Some hi- res guidance is also indicating the potential for
visibility restrictions at OGB but confidence is too low to
include in TAF. Any visibility restrictions will dissipate
shortly after sunrise with just few cumulus through the rest of
the day with winds generally out of the ENE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated through Thursday. Low probability of
restrictions during the late week period into the weekend from
afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$