731
FXUS61 KCAR 102303
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
703 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across the north will slowly move away to the
northeast today through Tuesday. A weak upper trough will remain
over the area Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds to
our west. High pressure will build south of the area Thursday. A
cold front will cross the region on Friday, followed by high
pressure building in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
650 PM Update:
Showers south of Baxter State Park will continue the next couple
hours before diminishing with sunset this evening. No
significant changes were needed.

Previous Discussion:
A broad area of low pressure continues to churn over the
Canadian Maritimes, as it slowly tracks further east into the
Gulf of St Lawrence. Behind the low, more stable air is
beginning to work into the northern half of the forecast area,
decreasing the threat for showers. Showers will continue to
diminish from north to south through the early evening hours,
with skies beginning to clear out overnight. Low temperatures
will fall to around 50 across the region.

For the day on Tuesday, an upper level trough will remain in the
area, which in addition to lingering low to mid level moisture
and diurnal heating, will lead to the development of convective
showers across the forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate a
skinny CAPE profile with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, so
the risk for lightning is limited but non-zero. High
temperatures will lift into the mid 70s over the forecast area
on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday night into Wednesday the upper level trough will weaken
and turn into more of a cutoff low over the state, with ridging
further to the north. Lingering instability aloft will aid in
the formation of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
atmosphere will be slightly drier than the previous days, so not
expecting too much accumulation. Thursday will provide a sort
of a break from the showers, at least for southern portions of
the forecast area. Overall though, we will still be under the
influence of a longwave trough, and a weak shortwave moving
across the northern part of Maine will keep at least the chance
for some showers through that region. With light flow overhead
starting Tuesday night, the chances of fog increase with all the
recent rainfall. Over the waters, marine fog is likely and
should be fairly widespread as warmer air begins to move in
ahead of the next front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night through Friday, a cold front will cross the
state, bringing another chance for thunderstorms. The timing on
this front is slightly variable between the deterministic runs,
with GFS running a little behind the EC and Canadian. Therefore,
blended PoPs to bring precip across the area a little bit
earlier, and included a chance for thunderstorms ahead of the
front through the Central Highlands and Interior Downeast. With
a true front passing, colder air aloft will increase
instability, but more importantly, we could see bulk shear
values of 30 to 40 kts across the front. Thus, there is the
potential for these storms to be severe so Friday will be the
day to watch. Details will come into better focus as the
forecast moves into the range for the CAMS. Saturday and Sunday,
weak ridging will move in, and with a cold pool aloft, surface
temps will be a little cooler, making for a pleasant weekend. By
Monday, temperatures will be on the rise as return flow around
the high moves overhead. Deterministic models indicate the
possibility of a shortwave bringing some showers for Monday
afternoon, but confidence in this feature is low since the
forecast is too far out for details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals...SCT to BKN MVFR cigs will remain through
this evening, with brief periods of IFR possible in patchy fog.
Conditions will improve to VFR into the day on Tues. Winds
light and variable. -SHRA possible Tues afternoon.

Downeast terminals...VFR conditions will continue tonight into
Tues, with brief IFR vis possible through early Tues morning due
to patchy dense fog. Winds light and variable. -SHRA possible
Tues afternoon.


SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night-Thursday night...During the daytime, generally
VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger
showers in the afternoon. During the nighttime and early
mornings, MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog. Better chance
and more persistent IFR/fog along the coast. Winds less than 10
kts except during the day Thursday, when S/SW around 10 kts is
expected.

Friday...VFR early, decreasing to MVFR/IFR from N to S with
showers and storms. Timing of the front is a little uncertain,
with BGR/HUL/BHB more likely to see afternoon TS. S/SW wind
10-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS possible.

Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR gradually becoming VFR by
Saturday morning behind the front. Gusty N winds 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas less than small craft advisory
conditions will continue. Seas will approach around 4 ft on the
outermost portion of the coastal waters, and winds may briefly
surpass 20 kts across all waters in any rain showers.

SHORT TERM: Winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 2 ft or
less through Wednesday night. From Thursday into Friday, S winds
gradually increase to around 25 kts on Friday, and seas
gradually build to around 5 ft. Winds will subside below 25 kts
Friday night and remain there on Saturday. Seas gradually
subsiding to 3 feet by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Strauser
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Strauser/LF
Marine...Strauser/LF