Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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479 FXUS61 KCAR 081735 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 135 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure to our west will slowly lift up to our north today and tonight and remain across the north through Sunday. Low pressure will move away to the northeast on Monday followed by high pressure slowly building in from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 135 PM Update...Widespread showers continue across much of the forecast area this afternoon. A dry slot that briefly built in earlier across the Central Highlands introduced increased surface heating, which helped develop thunderstorms that this afternoon continue to develop and push eastward into the Downeast region. Previous Discussion: Low pressure, both surface and aloft, is located nearby to the northwest early this morning. Showers from this low have been most numerous closer to the low center across central and western parts of our region. A weak trough and surface occlusion rotating around the low is expected to lift northeast across the area today, likely increasing shower coverage further east as it moves through. The atmosphere will become a bit unstable during the midday and afternoon as a function of colder air pooled aloft in the upper low and a bit of diurnal heating. With CAPES up to 300-400 J/kg, will include scattered thunderstorms over the area, mostly across central and north today. Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the northern part of our region tonight. Shower and drizzle activity will continue, mostly over the north, although by then the system looks rather disorganized. Rain amounts of around a half inch to an inch are likely across the north with a quarter to a half inch Downeast on average although this could vary considerably across the area given the showery and convective nature of the rain. Today will be cooler than recent days with highs generally in the mid 60s followed by low to mid 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday... The center of the upper level low pressure moves SE and nears the NW Maine border. This will put us in a good position for another day of widespread showers, with a few embedded storms but nothing strong/severe. Shower activity will be the most abundant from midday into the afternoon. While some individual showers and storms will be heavy, not anticipating enough rain for flooding concerns. Temperatures will be kept down some because of the abundant clouds and showers, with highs around 70. Sunday Night... Activity should quiet to scattered showers Sunday night as we lose the daytime heating and as the upper level low moves just to our east into Northern New Brunswick. Some very slightly drier and cooler air moves in from the west with the passage of the upper low. Monday... The upper level low center will be east of us Monday, with our area under relatively unstable NW flow. Again, expect convection especially in the midday to afternoon hours, with possibly a storm as well. Not expecting quite as much action, though, as Saturday/Sunday, and have 60-70% PoPs Monday rather than the 80-95% PoPs Sat/Sun. Models are in good agreement through Monday and forecast confidence is high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday/Wednesday... A bit of a quieter weather pattern Tuesday/Wednesday with weak upper level flow. Still going with a chance of afternoon showers/storms Tue/Wed as the airmass will still be relatively moist, but with upper level dynamics lacking, not anticipating any strong or severe storms. Warmer Tuesday with mid to upper 70s, and warmer still Wednesday with around 80. Thursday/Friday... Models agreement goes down some Thu/Fri, but most models/ensembles bring stronger westerly flow in the region, with perhaps an approaching upper trough toward Friday. Potential exists for some very warm temperatures (potential for low to mid 80s) Thu/Fri and decent thunderstorm chances, especially toward Friday. Fairly muggy with the warmth as well toward Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Showers and thunderstorms continue across all terminals this afternoon. Any moderate to heavy rain showers could briefly bring vis and cigs down to LIFR. Otherwise, SCT to BKN IFR to low end MVFR cigs continue across Downeast terminals, while BKN IFR cigs continue for the most part across northern terminals. Winds light and variable. Tonight, Downeast terminals likely to improve towards VFR, though patchy fog could bring the threat for IFR conditions at coastal terminals/BHB. From HUL north, cigs will likely remain IFR with lingering SHRA, though the lightning threat will diminish overnight. Winds SW around 5 to 10 kts. SHORT TERM: Sunday...Starting out generally MVFR/IFR, with slow improvement to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Showers will be abundant midday and afternoon Sunday, with temporary MVFR/IFR in any showers. A few storms can`t be ruled out as well. Winds SW up to 10 kts. Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR north and VFR/MVFR south. Patchy fog could bring locally lower conditions. Light W wind. Monday...Becoming VFR for most areas by mid-morning, with generally VFR the rest of the day. However, temporarily MVFR is likely in any of the numerous midday and afternoon showers and isolated storms. W wind up to 10 kts. Monday Night...Generally VFR with a chance of MVFR. Light winds. Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though can`t rule out localized fog late Tue night, and temporary reduction in visibility in any of the scattered afternoon showers/storms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind will remain below SCA today and tonight, though wind gusts may briefly exceed 20 kts in any heavier rain showers this afternoon. Seas will build up to 4 ft over the offshore waters and 2 to 3 ft acoss the intracoastal waters. Humid air over the cooler water will likely produce areas of fog and mist today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft levels Saturday night through midweek. Seas will sit around 3 to 4 ft early before decreasing Tue/Wed. Patchy fog is possible Sunday night and Monday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Bloomer Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy