Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
786 FXUS61 KCAR 061959 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 359 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly approach into Friday and cross the region this weekend into Monday. A cold front clears east of the area Monday night with high pressure building in for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak occluded front will be slowly progressing NE into New England tonight which will be the beginning phase of an unsettled next several days. Large 500mb low slides east into the Eastern Great Lakes states and Ontario tonight. Expecting the chance of showers to increase across western portions of the CWA including Moosehead Region, Bangor area and Downeast coast. Skies gradually becoming overcast areawide tonight with a partial clearing before midnight confined to Northeast Aroostook but overall cloudy late tonight. Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 50s with low 50s along the Downeast coast thanks to the East wind off the colder waters of the Bay of Fundy. Tomorrow, the continued strong blocking in the North Atlantic (-NAO) will slowly given enough for the weakening occluded front to slowly pivot across Maine barely reaching Central Maine by afternoon. Along and near the front will feature scattered to numerous showers. Vort max pivoting around the 500mb low will bring some dynamically support to the Moosehead Region into the North Woods near Quebec. A few hundred j/kg of CAPE is likely to develop and despite mainly cloudy skies on the downwind side of the Longfellow Mtns (NW side due to SE winds) we could see a couple lightning strikes with the slightly lower freezing level. Best chance of rainfall will be in the areas that really need it due to long term deficits (D0 Drought) in the North Woods to Moosehead Region. Rainfall amounts here despite it being showery look to be 0.2-0.5 inch with potentially higher amounts by sunset. Elsewhere, rainfall tomorrow generally 0.1 inch or less but more expected into the short term below...High temperatures tomorrow will be generally in the low to mid 60s across much of the Central Highlands and Downeast coast. Across far Northeast Aroostook looks to be the warm spot thanks to the downslope off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled, wet weather Fri night to Sunday as an upper trough to our west slowly approaches the area. Models/ensembles are in reasonable agreement on the overall wet pattern. Models also tend to have a first eastern lobe of the upper level low pressure move through Saturday, with a second lobe moving through on Sunday. This should bring the highest rain chances during the day both Saturday and Sunday, making for a very poor weekend for those with outdoor plans. Thankfully, we are not concerned about flooding, as rain totals through the weekend generally look to be in the range of one half to two inches, and should be spread out between Saturday and Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday, but we are not expecting any stronger or severe storms as instability is fairly limited. Low clouds and fog will likely be an issue especially near the coast and especially in the overnight and early AM hours. The abundant clouds and showers will keep temperatures fairly cool, with highs Sat/Sun in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... One more active weather day likely Monday, as the core of the complex upper trough finally moves through our area. Some model disagreement begins to enter the picture Monday, so not very confidence in the amount of shower activity. Tentatively looking for showers being likely on Monday, mainly in the afternoon, with a few storms as well. Tuesday into Thursday, models are in poor agreement on how the weather pattern evolves. The weather pattern appears to remain fairly active, but probably not as active as the Friday to Monday period was. Some models have another trough moving in mid-week, while others bring us weak high pressure...too early to say, and playing it safe by sticking close to the National Blend of Models which goes for a chance of precipitation each day and temperatures fairly close to average. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR tonight then MVFR tomorrow. E-SE winds 5-10kt becoming SE 5-15kt tomorrow. VCSH tonight with -SHRA likely tomorrow. Southern Terms...FEW-SCT MVFR overall VFR becoming MVFR/IFR this evening then IFR/LIFR tonight. IFR tomorrow. VCSH becoming -SHRA likely tonight into tomorrow. E-SE winds 5-10kt tonight becoming E-SE 5-15kt tomorrow. SHORT TERM: Friday Night through Sunday Night... Generally poor aviation conditions with predominantly IFR in the overnight to mid- morning hours, and MVFR in the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also possible this period. Winds generally from the south at 10 kts or less. Monday and Tuesday... Lower confidence in aviation conditions Mon/Tue, but a greater probability of VFR than was present over the weekend. Still a chance of showers or storms Mon/Tue, but again, lower probabilities over the weekend. Wind generally from the W/NW 10 kts or less. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas mainly below SCA conditions through tomorrow evening. E-SE winds less than 20kt tonight becoming E tomorrow. Seas 1-3ft tonight becoming 3-5ft tomorrow. Areas of fog tonight with showers possible, both expected to reduce vsby. Tomorrow showers and fog will reduce vsby. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas likely below small craft levels through Tuesday. However, winds and especially seas will be up a bit from what has been observed recently, with seas generally around 4 feet over the weekend, and winds generally 10-15 kts from a general southerly direction. Also, fog at times will be an issue over the waters through the weekend, likely improving early next week as the flow shifts more offshore. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Sinko Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Sinko/Foisy Marine...Sinko/Foisy