656
FXUS61 KCAR 040111
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in through Tuesday night, before
slowly drifting east Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex
storm system then slowly approaches from the west Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:11 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate a
clear to partly cloudy sky across most of the FA with a partly
to mostly cloudy sky in much of eastern Aroostook County. Any
isolated showers from early in the evening have dissipated. Low
level flow from the Maritimes overnight may lead to more clouds
moving into the area, but confidence is not all that high. Have
made some adjustments to lower the sky grids for the next
several hours, but confidence was not high enough to lower the
cloud cover toward daybreak. Otherwise, no significant changes
are planned.

Previous discussion:
Tonight...
Isolated showers should dissipate this evening. Looking at
mostly cloudy skies tonight with relative moist low-level
easterly flow from the Canadian Maritimes. Expect a general
lowering trend to cloud heights through the night, but not
expecting fog. Not expecting much if any radiational
cooling/decoupling tonight (unlike previous nights), so although
the airmass overall will be cooler behind the backdoor cold
front, low temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night,
with lows around 50. Light winds tonight.

Tuesday...
High pressure rebuilds over the area Tuesday. Early morning
low to mid level clouds may be a bit slow to dissipate thanks to
light winds. Expecting mostly cloudy skies in the morning, with
partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid
70s. While we can`t totally rule out an isolated afternoon
shower, kept PoPs below 15%, as think that subsidence with the
high pressure will cap any developing cumulus and keep them
pretty shallow. Winds light Tuesday and generally from the NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region remains in between a closed low over the eastern
Maritimes and another closed low slowly moving east across south
central Canada with ridging in between them, as this pattern
slowly translates to the east Tuesday night through Thursday.

Tuesday night should be dry, but should see some cloud cover
until drier air works in late at night. A northern stream
shortwave pushes south Wednesday and Wednesday night, and could
bring some isolated showers across areas mainly North of Coastal
Downeast Maine Wednesday afternoon and evening, with possibly a
rumble of thunder over portions of the Central Highlands as
well. The showers should be of a hit and miss nature, with more
areas dry than wet at any given moment in time.

The ECMWF is the most progressive with the closed low to the
west, and so have opted not to favor it, especially with the
high resolution models going out through Thursday backing the
majority slower solution. As a result, have limited pops on
Thursday to slight chance to roughly the SW 1/2 of the CWA, and
also mostly in the afternoon. Once again, the showers should be
of a hit and miss nature - more likely to miss than to hit any
given location.

There also should be some patchy fog especially late
night/early morning, with the best chance near the coast.

Temperatures should be a few degrees above normal Tuesday
night, about 5-10 degrees above normal Wednesday, around 5
degrees above normal Wednesday night, and 5-10 degrees above
normal across the North and near to slightly above normal
elsewhere on Thursday due to strengthening onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models continue to show a closed or cutoff low slowly moving
from near the Great Lakes Thursday night moving easterly towards
the east coast of the NE US/SE Canada into early next week. The
models still differ as to the exact strength, track and timing
of this system. The weather should be unsettled during this time
frame across the Northeast, but not necessarily over the entire
area all at once. So have limited pops to chance in this time
frame. It won`t be raining the whole time, and might end up more
dry than wet over the Thursday night through Monday time frame
as a whole, but it does appear that most if not all locations
should get a wetting rain at some point. A track over or to the
south of us will generally bring more precipitation than a track
to the north of us.

Temperatures Thursday night-Monday are currently forecast to be
above normal. However, confidence in this decreases later in the
forecast period as the track/timing of the storm system will
greatly impact the actual temperature. If the system goes
directly over the region, it could end up quite a bit cooler
than currently forecast as it passes.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR late this evening with light wind. Most forecast
terminals drop to MVFR or low VFR ceilings somewhere around
5-8z, but confidence on the MVFR ceilings is a bit lower than
previous forecasts. CAR/PQI have the best staying at staying
low VFR all night. All other TAF sites have a 30-50% chance of
MVFR ceilings. The MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR by 15z
Tuesday, leaving a VFR afternoon with light winds.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Wednesday evening...VFR, with possible exception
of a brief period of MVFR in any shower and MVFR or lower being
possible in any patchy fog late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning - with the best chance of the latter at southern
terminals.

Late Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR, with the exception of MVFR
or lower possible to probable late at night/early morning in
any stratus or fog, with the highest chance at southern
terminals.

Thursday night-Saturday...VFR, with possible exception of a
brief period of MVFR in any shower and MVFR or lower probable
in any patchy fog late at night/early in the morning - with the
best chance of the latter at southern terminals. LLWS possible
at southern terminals Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions remaining well below small craft levels
with no marine fog.


SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Tuesday
night-Saturday should limit winds to 10 kt or less. Seas should
be 2 ft or less Tuesday night-Thursday, then an increasing swell
could gradually build seas to 4 or 5 ft Thursday night through
Saturday. Patchy to areas of marine fog are possible late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and then again from
Wednesday night into the later part of the week. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact extent, if any, of
marine fog later in the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...CB/Foisy/Maloit
Marine...CB/Foisy/Maloit