872
FXUS61 KCAR 150140
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
940 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the area overnight, then stalls over
the region through Friday. High pressure builds down from the
northeast Friday night through Saturday night, then slides to
the east on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...
Weak cold front currently approaching from Quebec province will
move into the region overnight. Expect mainly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers. Patchy fog is expected
across northern and central areas overnight, with areas of fog
expected Downeast. Low temperatures are expected to range from
the upper 40 to around 50 degrees. Just minor adjustments to
forecast database at this hour.

previous discussion
Cold front will slide into central areas in the morning and
gradually wash out. This will provide a focus for shower
development in the afternoon. Depending on how many breaks can
occur in the cloud cover, potential exists for isolated
thunderstorms to develop along boundary after 18z over the
Central Highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the area as a
surface frontal boundary remains stalled across the region,
before dissipating during the day on Friday.

The result will be a period of unsettled weather, with the best
chance for any precipitation along and to the north of the
frontal boundary. This should focus showers mainly along and
north of a Bangor to Woodland line Wednesday night and
Thursday, then along and north of a Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth
line Thursday night and Friday. Showers should be less numerous
in both extent and coverage Thursday night and Friday than
before hand as the surface boundary gradually weakens then
dissipates.

It appears that there could be sufficient instability to
continue a few rumbles of thunder into the early evening hours
over portions of the Central Highlands Wednesday evening,
consistent with the convective allowing models. At this time,
would expect more of a local enhancement of rainfall with any
thunder vice anything strong/severe.

Lows Wednesday night should be around 10 degrees above normal,
highs on Thursday near to a few degrees above normal, lows
Thursday night 5-10 degrees above normal, and highs on Friday
around 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The region will be on the backside of a deep layered ridge
Friday night, giving way to northern stream shortwave ridging
building in Saturday through Sunday. More than likely it should
be dry, however with some uncertainty on whether a surface
boundary could exist over northern portions of the area, do have
pops for isolated to scattered showers, with highest pops over
far northern zones. If there are any showers during this time
frame, they will be of the hit and miss variety, and far more
likely to miss than to hit at any given location.

There is some uncertainty on timing with the next system - for
now the ECMWF seems on the fast end of things and the CMC on the
slow end of things -so for now mainly slight chance pops Sunday
night and mainly chance pops on Monday/Monday night. Most
guidance agrees the system exits to the east Monday night. There
is some indication that a surface cold front passes with this
system - so did introduce a slight chance of thunder Monday
afternoon/evening across portions of the North.

Do have some pops in on Tuesday in case the slower CMC idea is
correct. Given low model certainty - its probably better to have
more extensive pops in terms of coverage than actually needed
until the timing issues are resolved.

Temperatures should be above normal Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR currently at the Aroostook county terminals, but
expect MVFR to develop after 06z in patchy fog, with IFR
possible vcnty KFVE 08Z to 14z Wednesday. VFR develops 14Z-16Z
all terminals on Wednesday. Light S wind tonight becoming
variable early Wednesday.

KBGR/KBHB...VFR currently is expected to give way to developing
fog and MVFR/IFR after 05z,(low to moderate confidence) and low
confidence LIFR KBHB vcnty. MVFR develops 14z to 16Z, then VFR
there after.

Light S wind tonight, then light and variable wind on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night...MVFR or lower possible in any
heavier showers or fog.

Friday...Mainly VFR, with low chance of MVFR at northern
terminals. Winds SE 5-15 kts.

Friday Night-Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels
overnight and Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in areas
of fog late tonight.

SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters
Wednesday night through Sunday should limit winds to up to 10
kt. Seas should be 3 ft or less Wednesday night through
Thursday night, then increasing swell could bring seas up to 4
ft Friday through Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Buster
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...TWD/Buster/Maloit
Marine...TWD/Buster/Maloit