809
FXUS62 KCHS 261704
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
104 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot conditions are expected through Memorial Day. A cold front
will move into the region Monday night and stall into mid week.
High pressure will return for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon through this evening: At the surface high
pressure is located to the east while to the west there are two
features of note. Hand analysis from 12Z depicts a shortwave
trough on the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains as well as a
much weaker shortwave across MS/AL. The trough to the lee of
the mountains is the focus of possible precipitation this
afternoon, as the shortwave across MS/AL is quite weak and
likely will not be enough forcing to spur showers/thunderstorms.
Ongoing convection over Kentucky, associated with the
shortwave, will continue into this afternoon, with additional
showers and thunderstorms possibly forming over the SC Midlands.
Some of those showers and thunderstorms could brush some of the
far inland counties of the CWA as well as make a run for the
Charleston Tri-County.

The thunderstorm risk this afternoon is very conditional, if
storms are able to form mesoanalysis suggests that DCAPE values
are upwards of 1200 J/kg, along with 40 knots of effective
shear. This would lead to a threat of damaging wind gusts. Low
level lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 to 7.5 C/km, which
would also lead to a marginal hail threat.

It will be another seasonably hot and humid day with highs
warming into the lower 90s with a few mid 90s possible in a few
areas. These temperatures combined with moderate levels of
humidity will support heat indices in the 98-101 range.

Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail into early Monday
morning once evening convection dissipates. A little ground fog
could develop prior to daybreak, but no major issues/impacts are
expected. It will be warm/humid night with lows only dropping
into the lower 70s with mid 70s at the coast and beaches. The
record high minimums could be challenged, mainly at the
Charleston AFB/International Airport (KCHS) and Downtown
Charleston (KCXM), but current data suggest values will fall
just short of record levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast area will be situated between offshore high pressure
and a cold front approaching from the west on Monday. Aloft,
broad troughing shifts towards the East Coast, pushing the
ridge axis offshore. Consensus keeps at least the first half of
the day dry, then upstream convection could move into the area
later in the afternoon and into the evening/overnight. Still
unsure of how much coverage there will be when this occurs but
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Some of this activity could be more organized when it arrives.
Primary threat with any stronger storms would be damaging wind
gusts. Otherwise, expect another hot day with highs reaching the
low 90s in most locations. Lows Monday night will largely be
around 70 or in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned front will then stall in the vicinity into
mid week. PWats fall and trends have continued to show a drier
forecast for Tuesday. Shouldn`t see more than just isolated
showers and thunderstorms, particularly along the coast. A dry
forecast is in place for Wednesday. Highs both days peak in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be the primary surface feature Thursday into
the weekend. Aloft, mid level wave passes over the Northeast
and Mid- Atlantic, before shifting offshore late week. This
period should be mostly dry, aside from some diurnal rain
chances returning over the weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing VFR through the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, however
the best chances remain inland from the terminals. KCHS/KJZI
have the best chance at seeing a shower/tstorm, however
confidence in direct impacts to the terminals remain low so
there is no mention in the 18Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible in showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: West winds will turn more southerly this afternoon with
the development of a modest resultant sea breeze circulation.
Winds along the land/sea interface, including Charleston Harbor,
could get a bit elevated for a few hours this afternoon with
winds in the Harbor reaching 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Onshore
winds coupled with an outgoing tide could make for locally rough
conditions in the Harbor late this afternoon. Seas will average
1-2 ft.

Tonight: Southerly winds around 10 kt will persist through the
night. A few tstms could move off the Charleston County coast
later this evening bringing a risk for convective wind gusts in
excess of 34 kt and cloud-to-water lightning.

Monday through Friday: Marine conditions remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the week. South to southwest will largely
persist through midweek until a cold front pushes east of the
waters. High pressure will be the dominant feature for late week.
Winds will average 15 knots or less and seas 2-3 feet, with
occasional 4 feet early in the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 27:
KCHS: 76/1991
KCXM: 79/2019
KSAV: 77/1878

May 28:
KCHS: 76/2000
KCXM: 80/2000
KSAV: 76/1885

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...