726
FXUS62 KCHS 280408
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1208 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the region tonight, then stall
nearby through the middle of the week. High pressure will
return for the second half of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm/moist conditions remain in place early this morning.
Regional radars show isolated showers trying to percolate across
east-central Georgia into interior Southeast Georgia with the
approach of a weak mid-level perturbation. This activity is
developing within an enhanced 850 hPa theta-e ridge axis that
stretches from Jefferson and Dublin, GA east to near the
Charleston Metro Area. Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling,
RAP soundings show quite a bit of elevated CAPE (1500-2000 J/kg)
in place above the shallow noctural inversion. If isolated
convection can begin to tap into this instability, then an
uptick in showers/tstms could occur over the next few hours.
This is implied by both the H3R and RAP which shows activity
developing during the early morning hours across Southeast
Georgia into south coastal South Carolina. With meaningful DCAPE
still in place and freezing levels below 14 kft, there is still
a risk for an isolated strong to severe tstm through daybreak.
This is certainly somewhat that will have to be watched over the
next few hours. 20% pops were introduced with activity expected
to shift to the lower South Carolina coast as sunrise approaches.
Lows will range from around 70 well inland to the mid 70s at
the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over
the eastern half of the U.S. At the surface, a cold front will
be located along our coast early in the morning. It`s forecasted
to transition into a stationary front shortly thereafter and
meander along our coast through the early evening. By late
evening, it`ll transition back into a cold front and move
further offshore, and away from our area. Broad High pressure
will be centered over the Northern Plains overnight, with its
periphery building into our region. The highest moisture values
will remain just offshore, on the other side of the front. With
less moisture in place, there won`t be much instability in place
across our area, despite temperatures peaking in the lower 90s
away from the beaches. The synoptic models and long-range CAMs
hint at maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly near
are coastal SC counties in the afternoon. Further south, more
dry air and capping should limit any convection from developing.
Anything that does manage to develop over our SC counties
should be weak, dissipating by sunset. The evening and overnight
will be dry everywhere. Lows will range from the lower 60s far
inland to around 70 degrees at the beaches.

Wednesday and Thursday: The mid-levels will consist of a
longwave trough over the eastern half of the U.S. Wednesday. The
trough will become more amplified along the East Coast
Wednesday night into Thursday, in response to ridging
approaching from the west. At the surface, broad High pressure
centered over the Northern MS Valley Wednesday morning will
shift to the Great Lakes region by late Thursday. The periphery
of this High will reach all the way into the Southeast U.S. both
days, bringing dry conditions. Afternoon dew points may fall
into the 50s away from the beaches, which will make it feel very
comfortable. Temperatures on Wednesday should peak around 90
degrees, and the lower to mid 80s on Thursday. No convection is
expected either day, but fair weather cumulus is expected both
afternoons. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 60s
far inland to around 70 degrees at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough over the East Coast Thursday night will shift offshore
by later Friday, followed by a ridge building on Saturday, and
possibly prevailing into Monday. High pressure will be the
dominant surface feature during the long term. POPs will be
around 20% each afternoon with temperatures a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
28/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 29/06z. There is a risk for some
isolated tstms forming near KCHS and KJZI as daybreak
approaches. May need to include VCTS overnight as confidence
increases in this activity passing by both terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft will prevail.

Tuesday through Saturday: Rather tranquil conditions are
expected. A cold front will be located along our coast early
Tuesday morning, moving further offshore, and away from our area
Tuesday night. High pressure will then gradually move towards
our area midweek and prevail through the weekend. Even the
sea/land breezes don`t appear to be too strong during this time
period. Wind speeds should average 15 kts or less. Seas will be
4 ft or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 27:
KCHS: 76/1991
KCXM: 79/2019
KSAV: 77/1878

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$