272
FXUS62 KCHS 081104
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
704 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend, before a cold
front moves through the area on Monday. The pattern is expected
to turn more unsettled through mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At sunrise, IR satellite and view out of the window indicated a
few thin mid-level clouds across the forecast area. In the wake
of the cold front, sfc observations indicated northeast winds
between 5 to 10 mph in most locations. The forecast update will
feature adjusts to hourly temperature, sky, and winds to align
with recent observations.

Satellite water vapor imagery indicated deep dry air across the
region. Near term guidance indicates that dry air will remain
through today and tonight, moisture should slowly increase from the
east. At the sfc, a weak cold front will push off the coast with
high pressure centered over the Deep South. This afternoon, a weak
sea breeze should develop and push one to two counties inland before
stalling. Forecast soundings indicate that the BL will remain dry
with little to no CAPE. In fact, cloud cover could be limited to
shallow cumulus and thin cirrus. Given strong June insolation, high
temperatures along and west of the sea breeze should peak in the low
to mid 90s.

Tonight, the pattern across the CWA will feature weak sfc high
pressure with slight H5 ridging. Conditions should favor a mostly
clear sky with light to calm winds. Low temperatures are forecast to
range from the upper 60s inland to the low to mid 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sandwiched between Atlantic and inland surface high pressure with
nearly zonal flow aloft will make for a rain-free weekend day
Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny and dew points will mix out into
the mid to upper 50s inland. Min RHs will then dip into the 25-30%
range. Fire weather concerns are fairly low at this time in the
absence of gusty winds and dry soils. Temperatures will continue to
run above normal with highs expected to soar into the mid to upper
90s Sunday. Some locations could even reach near record high
temperatures (see Climate section below). Overnight, low
temperatures will remain mild - only dipping into the low 70s inland
and mid/upper 70s near the coast.

Late Sunday into early Monday, a weak cold front will push across
the area as shortwave energy to the north passes. With deep moisture
and forcing limited to the north, isolated showers will also be
limited to the Charleston Tri-County overnight. As some of the
higher dew point air seeps south through the day Monday, scattered
CI is possible, mainly along the afternoon sea breeze. Monday will
be a bit cooler in comparison to Sunday with highs in the low to mid
90s. Min temps will drop into the upper 60s away from the beaches.

Some uncertainty is in play for Tuesday`s forecast as the latest
guidance shows the deeper moisture mostly offshore by Tuesday. Model
soundings show a fairly pronounced layer of drier air moving in
aloft and convection would struggle to develop in this environment.
However, with forcing mechanisms still in place (sea breeze, llvl
convergence, and weak DPVA) we could see some showers and
thunderstorms where forcing is strong enough and/or any
lingering moisture exists. Chance POPs are still in place,
however these could be lowered in the future if the drier trend
continues. Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to
low 90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The general pattern is for a large, unorganized area of low pressure
to potentially develop somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Most models
indicate that at least some of the deep layer/tropical moisture
associated with this area could spread northeastward toward our
region, especially mid to late next week. The trend continues to
show increasing precipitation chances through the end of next week.
We will continue to monitor the potential for locally heavy
rainfall, but as of now it is too early to determine QPF/rainfall
totals. Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal as
increasing moisture/clouds/precip chances limit daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12Z
Sunday. A weak sea breeze will push across the terminals
this afternoon, resulting in the winds to shift from the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through
Sunday night. The chances for convection will increase through the
week bringing the potential for periodic flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: A weak cold front will push over the western
Atlantic as sfc high pressure remains centered over the Deep South.
A weak sea breeze is forecast to develop this afternoon. Winds will
veer from the southeast around 10 kts this afternoon, then turning
from the southwest between 5 to 10 kts tonight. Seas are forecast to
range between 1 to 2 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: The general pattern will support the
typical southerly/southwesterly flow with winds around 10-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft through the middle of next week. Winds are expected to
shift easterly Tuesday through Thursday as broad low pressure
develops in the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
June 9:
KCHS: 99/1986

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM/NED
MARINE...BRM/NED