604
FXUS62 KCHS 072002
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across tonight. High pressure
will return for the weekend, then another cold front is
expected to move through area on Monday. The pattern could turn
more unsettled through mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Difficult to pick out, but a rather diffuse surface boundary/wind
shift appears to be just to our northwest, snaking back through
central Georgia, although axis of higher PWAT air is already
shifting off the coast per satellite Total Precipitable Water
product and lower dewpoint air already mixing into the region.
A decent amount of diurnal Cu out there ahead of the boundary...
looking a touch congested in spots particularly up through the
Pee Dee where occasional radar blips continue to pop.

Tonight: Surface boundary will slip on down through the region
through this evening/early overnight with drier air
overspreading the region. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 1-2K
J/Kg MLCAPE across much of the forecast area. Thus, still
possible we see some convection kick off over the next few
hours...if we can get enough forced ascent. Will see. Our
current PoPs run through around 7 pm and will leave as-is.

After the front moves through, expect a dry and much cooler
night with the much lower dew points making it feel very
comfortable. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 60s
away from the immediate coast, with a few low 60s possible in
the typical cool spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Northwest upper level flow and weak high pressure will be
over the region. Deep, dry air will keep PoPs to less than 10%.
However, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the
in the lower to mid 90s away from the immediate coast, and lows
Saturday night in the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the
coast.

Sunday: Similar pattern to Saturday, but slightly higher values of
deep layer moisture, especially over the northern 1/3 of the area.
Could see an isolated very late date/evening shower or thunderstorm,
mainly closer to the Charleston County coast and northern Berkeley
County. The main trigger for any convection will likely be the
seabreeze, along with a weak upper level disturbance glancing by the
extreme northern Charleston Tri-county area. Continued above normal
Temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows Sunday
night in the lower to mid 70s.

Monday: A broad and deepening upper level trough is shown by models to
move into the eastern U.S., with an associated surface front moving
through the region during the day. This front, along with high
values of deep layer moisture and lower upper level heights will
likely result in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Right now, chances of any storms to be strong to severe appear to be
too low to mention. This may be our warmest day of the week, with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combining very hot temperatures with
increasing low level moisture/humidity will push max Heat indices
into the 100-105 degree range. These values are still below Heat
Advisory levels, but will feel quite uncomfortable for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models have been trending for the past several runs for this period
to be more unsettled, with increasing deep layer moisture. There is
still considerable uncertainty with where and when the best chances
for rainfall will be for this period. The latest models seem to
point toward later Wednesday through Friday. The general pattern is
for a large, unorganized area of low pressure to potentially develop
somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Most models indicating that at
least some of the deep layer/tropical moisture associated with this
area could spread northeastward toward our region, especially middle
to late next week. Exact QPF values are impossible to pin down at
this time. Will also continue to monitor the potential for locally
heavy rainfall for this period as well. Temperatures will likely be
near to even slightly below normal as increasing
moisture/clouds/precip chances help to cut down the daytime
heating.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z
Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR conditions expected to prevail at all
sites: KCHS, KJZI and KSAV

Monday through Wednesday: Gradual increase in moisture and chances
for precipitation, especially by later Wednesday. Scattered
convection expected Monday and Tuesday, and Scattered to numerous by
Wednesday. Therefore, brief, isolated flight restrictions Monday and
Tuesday, then flight restrictions become more likely by later
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Surface boundary will slip down through the region
tonight. West to southwest flow across the coastal waters
currently will veer around to the north tonight in response.
Speeds in the 10-15 knot range through tonight, with gusts to
20 knots at times through late afternoon.

Saturday through Wednesday: No highlights are expected through
the period. A weak front is expected to pass through the waters
Monday, then likely stall over or just south of the waters
Sunday through mid week. Winds generally 15 knots or less and
seas 2 to 3 feet. Increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms
by mid week as tropical moisture tries to push northeastward
from the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...BRM/RFM
LONG TERM...BRM/RFM
AVIATION...Adam/RFM
MARINE...Adam/RFM