496
FXUS62 KCHS 091813
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
213 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region today. A cold front
is expected to sweep across the forecast area on Monday. The
pattern is expected to turn more unsettled mid to late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon: Full on sunny skies dominate continue to
dominate. Still tracking a smaller scale wave advancing through
North Carolina and the northern part of South Carolina that has
some cloud cover that will skirt the northern part of the
forecast area later in the afternoon. A few radar returns as
well, although any precip will remain north of our area.
Temperatures appear on track with highs looking to top out in
the middle to upper 90s...cooler near the coast of course.


Previous discussion...
Tonight, a cold front is forecast to reach the coast by 6Z,
pushing across most of the coastal waters by daybreak Monday
morning. High resolution guidance indicates that showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas, along
and ahead of the cold front, this afternoon. These thunderstorms
should track southeast, outpacing the cold front. Based on the
latest HREF, indicates that the convection will arrive after
sunset with weakening updrafts. The forecast will feature SCHC
for showers and thunderstorms. The SPC convective outlook for
tonight shows a Marginal Risk across portions of the SC
Lowcountry. The late arrival of the convection and poor
environment, no severe weather is expected at this time. Low
temperatures should range from the low 70s inland to the mid to
upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday, a H5 trough will amplify across the southern Appalachians
and Deep South during the daylight hours. A frontal wave is expected
to develop along the old cold front across southern GA Monday
afternoon. As the frontal wave develop, CAPE across extreme SE GA
may build to 1000-1500 J/kg along with weak shear. This environment
could support loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms across SE
GA. HREF indicates that SE GA will have a 10-30 percent chance for
updraft strength in excess of 30 m/s. One or two of these
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, PW
values may build to 1.7-1.8 inches in the vicinity of the frontal
wave, supporting heavy downpours. The forecast will indicate the
greatest coverage along the coast of GA and portions of the SC
coast. Storms should gradually push over the coastal waters Monday
evening. High temperatures may range from the upper 80s across
inland GA/SC to the mid 90s across SE GA. Showers and thunderstorms
should push east through the night as the mid-level trough ripples
over the region. Low temperatures should range in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday, mid-level ridging should increase across the
forecast area. At the sfc, weak high pressure is forecast to remain
centered over the Mid West to Mid Atlantic. There appears to be
enough moisture across the region to support diurnal isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures should
remain slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term appears unsettled with low confidence with the details
of the forecast. Generally, long term guidance indicates that a
plume of deep moisture will linger across the Southeast U.S. during
the late week. Global models indicate that sfc low pressure may
develop over the Gulf of Mexico, however, guidance has tremendous
spread. Generally, the forecast will feature diurnal PoPs for
showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures should range around
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight: VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals this
afternoon and tonight. Surface boundary will slip down through
the region late overnight into Monday. MVFR cloud cover could
develop at the terminal sites behind the boundary Monday
morning particularly at KCHS/KJZI, although we will indicate
just SCT lower cloud layers for now.

Otherwise, west-southwesterly winds this afternoon into tonight
will veer northerly late overnight into Monday behind the
boundary.

Extended Aviation Outlook: The chance for convection and
periodic flight restrictions increases Monday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The sfc pattern will support southwest across the marine zones
today, speeds between 10-15 kts. Seas should remain between 1-2 ft
today.

Tonight, a cold front is forecast to reach the coast by 6Z, pushing
across most of the coastal waters by daybreak Monday morning. As the
front approaches, SW winds may surge with gusts around 20 kts. Winds
are time to veer from the northwest during the pre-dawn hours. Seas
are forecast to build to 2-4 ft during the wind surge ahead of the
cold front.

Extended Marine: A weak area of low pressure may track along the
front, across portions of the waters on Monday. Winds are forecast
to remain 10 kts or less with 1-2 ft seas. However, clusters of
thunderstorms may track across the waters Monday afternoon and
night. High pressure should build across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. Unsettled weather may develop Thursday and could linger
into the late week. Conditions are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
June 9:
KCHS: 99/1986

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam/NED
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...Adam/NED
MARINE...NED