Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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810 FXUS62 KCHS 071109 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 709 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will return for the weekend, then another cold front will move through Monday. The pattern could turn unsettled through mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the forecast area will be positioned within the trough south of the upper low situated near the Great Lakes. At the surface, the day will begin with a front draped across the central Carolinas and central Georgia. The front is progged to gradually progress towards the coast, but likely won`t completely slip offshore until the evening. As the front pushes through, considerably drier air will arrive and drive dew points into the upper 50s for areas inland of the immediate coast. This drier air will also impact the potential for diurnal convection which should be quite limited this afternoon. Hi-res model guidance depicts very isolated and weak convection right along the coast this afternoon, which is where the best low- level moisture will be centered. Also, surface winds will be west to west-northwest for most of the day, which is not a wind direction typically supportive of convection. We have maintained a small area of isolated showers and thunderstorms down along the Georgia coast, but do not expect much from this activity. The severe threat is virtually zero. Despite the front nearby, temperatures will be quite warm again today. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 90s just about everywhere. Tonight: The front will shift offshore and high pressure will begin to build in across the region. Expect a dry and much cooler night with the much lower dew points making it feel very comfortable. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 60s away from the immediate coast, with a few low 60s possible in the typical cool spots. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday and Sunday: As a cold front departs offshore early Saturday, dry surface high pressure will expand across the entire Southeast. Additionally, the flow aloft will become nearly zonal with slight building of a low-amplitude ridge over the eastern Gulf, which will make for a quiet, rain-free weekend. Skies will be mostly sunny with the exception of some streaming high level cirrus. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the weekend although accompanied with fairly comfortable dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s. Highs are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s Saturday and mid to upper 90s away of the immediate coast Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s inland to low/mid 70s near the coast Saturday night. Sunday night will be relatively mild with lows only dipping into the low 70s inland and mid/upper 70s near the beaches. Monday: Late Sunday into early Monday, a weak cold front will push across the area as shortwave energy to the north passes by. With deep moisture and forcing limited to the north, the chances for convection will remain very low. We cannot rule out a stray shower offshore or across the Charleston Tri-County in the morning, however. As some of the higher dew point air seeps south, this could allow the afternoon sea breeze to initiate isolated showers/thunderstorms. Monday will feature another day in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Daytime shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return Tuesday as moisture spreads into the region ahead of the next system. A stronger/better organized upper level trough could advance across the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the middle and latter half of next week bringing deeper moisture and higher precip chances. Temperatures are forecast to drop back to near-normal through the long-term forecast period. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Saturdsy. Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Southwest flow this morning will turn more southerly this afternoon ahead of the inland front. Then overnight the front will move offshore and winds will become northwesterly late. Speeds are expected to peak in the 10-15 knot range, with gusts to 20 knots at times. Overnight, wind speeds should mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas will peak this morning in the 2-4 ft range, decreasing to be 2-3 ft overnight. Saturday through Wednesday: Flow will veer northeasterly on Saturday behind a cold front. However, the pattern will quickly revert back to the typical southerly/southwesterly flow by Sunday through the period. Winds will continue to average 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BSH/BRM MARINE...BSH/BRM