Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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364 FXUS62 KCHS 070520 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 120 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure will return for the weekend, then another cold front will move through Monday. High pressure will build back in behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: Right on cue like the hi-res models suggested, showers started bubbling up right after midnight. There are showers developing across the forecast area, as well as showers developing upstream closer to the upstream front. Surface analysis shows the front across north Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate. Ahead of the front, the best moisture is in place across central Georgia and the South Carolina Midlands all the way to the coast with precipitable water values on the order of 1.50-2.00 inches. There isn`t much instability for this convection to work with, but still sufficient to kick off isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible as well. These showers will move quickly so any rainfall will be relatively brief and we don`t anticipate any hydro or severe issues. Model consensus suggests that this isolated to scattered convection will last through about 6 am before shifting offshore. Temperatures are quite warm for the early morning hours, with many places still in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows should only fall into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... An elongated axis of upper level low pressure will build across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and New England region during the first part of the near term with low amplitude troughing pressing down through the Mid Atlantic and southeast states. Surface boundary is still looking to gradually slip down through the region during the course of day Friday and will knock temperatures down a few degrees from where we have been the last few. But the more noticeable impact will be lower dewpoint/drier air gradually spreading into the southeast region through the course of the day. Precip chances look minimal, although there could be a few pop-up showers along the boundary Friday afternoon particularly across parts of southeast Georgia where higher dewpoint air/instability is expected to reside - although that will depend on just where the boundary ends up at that time. With drier air/minimal instability across the region, Saturday and Sunday look quiet at this juncture. But temperatures will continue to run warm/above normal through the weekend with highs warming into the lower to middle 90s each day...a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early June. Overnight lows through the period will range through the 60s overall, to the lower/middle 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low amplitude ridging is looking spread out along the Gulf Coast region through the first part of next week with warmer/higher dewpoint air again edging back through the southeast states. Along with several weak disturbances rippling through the region, daytime shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return during the first half of the week. A stronger/better organized upper level trough may advance through the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the middle and latter half of next week bringing higher precip chances, although longer term guidance solutions do show a fair amount of spread during that time frame. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the period overall, but we could see a bit of a cooldown mid to late week...depending on how the pattern evolves. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main forecast challenge will be shower coverage for the next few hours and potential impacts at the terminals. These showers are moving quickly but could produce brief periods of heavy rain, MVFR visibilities, and gusty winds. The best chance for showers will be at KCHS and KJZI, and we have included TEMPO group at these sites. Shower activity should end by around 10z, and then the rest of the TAF period should be dry and VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds will surge as a cold front approaches from the west, but remains inland overnight. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient should yield south-southwest winds upwards to 15-20 kt across most local waters, with highest speeds across South Carolina waters and the CHS Harbor. Seas should also build up to 3-4 ft. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to develop near the coast late tonight, producing strong wind gusts. Special Marine Warnings could eventually be needed. Friday through Monday: Southerly flow early Friday will veer westerly Friday night and northerly on Saturday behind a cold front. However, the pattern quickly reverts back to the typical southerly/ southwesterly flow later in the weekend into early next week. Winds will continue to run 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...Adam LONG TERM...Adam AVIATION...Adam/BSH MARINE...Adam/DPB