Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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496 FXUS62 KCHS 091813 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region today. A cold front is expected to sweep across the forecast area on Monday. The pattern is expected to turn more unsettled mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early afternoon: Full on sunny skies dominate continue to dominate. Still tracking a smaller scale wave advancing through North Carolina and the northern part of South Carolina that has some cloud cover that will skirt the northern part of the forecast area later in the afternoon. A few radar returns as well, although any precip will remain north of our area. Temperatures appear on track with highs looking to top out in the middle to upper 90s...cooler near the coast of course. Previous discussion... Tonight, a cold front is forecast to reach the coast by 6Z, pushing across most of the coastal waters by daybreak Monday morning. High resolution guidance indicates that showers and thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas, along and ahead of the cold front, this afternoon. These thunderstorms should track southeast, outpacing the cold front. Based on the latest HREF, indicates that the convection will arrive after sunset with weakening updrafts. The forecast will feature SCHC for showers and thunderstorms. The SPC convective outlook for tonight shows a Marginal Risk across portions of the SC Lowcountry. The late arrival of the convection and poor environment, no severe weather is expected at this time. Low temperatures should range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday, a H5 trough will amplify across the southern Appalachians and Deep South during the daylight hours. A frontal wave is expected to develop along the old cold front across southern GA Monday afternoon. As the frontal wave develop, CAPE across extreme SE GA may build to 1000-1500 J/kg along with weak shear. This environment could support loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms across SE GA. HREF indicates that SE GA will have a 10-30 percent chance for updraft strength in excess of 30 m/s. One or two of these thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, PW values may build to 1.7-1.8 inches in the vicinity of the frontal wave, supporting heavy downpours. The forecast will indicate the greatest coverage along the coast of GA and portions of the SC coast. Storms should gradually push over the coastal waters Monday evening. High temperatures may range from the upper 80s across inland GA/SC to the mid 90s across SE GA. Showers and thunderstorms should push east through the night as the mid-level trough ripples over the region. Low temperatures should range in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday, mid-level ridging should increase across the forecast area. At the sfc, weak high pressure is forecast to remain centered over the Mid West to Mid Atlantic. There appears to be enough moisture across the region to support diurnal isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term appears unsettled with low confidence with the details of the forecast. Generally, long term guidance indicates that a plume of deep moisture will linger across the Southeast U.S. during the late week. Global models indicate that sfc low pressure may develop over the Gulf of Mexico, however, guidance has tremendous spread. Generally, the forecast will feature diurnal PoPs for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures should range around normals. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight: VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals this afternoon and tonight. Surface boundary will slip down through the region late overnight into Monday. MVFR cloud cover could develop at the terminal sites behind the boundary Monday morning particularly at KCHS/KJZI, although we will indicate just SCT lower cloud layers for now. Otherwise, west-southwesterly winds this afternoon into tonight will veer northerly late overnight into Monday behind the boundary. Extended Aviation Outlook: The chance for convection and periodic flight restrictions increases Monday through Thursday. && .MARINE... The sfc pattern will support southwest across the marine zones today, speeds between 10-15 kts. Seas should remain between 1-2 ft today. Tonight, a cold front is forecast to reach the coast by 6Z, pushing across most of the coastal waters by daybreak Monday morning. As the front approaches, SW winds may surge with gusts around 20 kts. Winds are time to veer from the northwest during the pre-dawn hours. Seas are forecast to build to 2-4 ft during the wind surge ahead of the cold front. Extended Marine: A weak area of low pressure may track along the front, across portions of the waters on Monday. Winds are forecast to remain 10 kts or less with 1-2 ft seas. However, clusters of thunderstorms may track across the waters Monday afternoon and night. High pressure should build across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Unsettled weather may develop Thursday and could linger into the late week. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures June 9: KCHS: 99/1986 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Adam/NED SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...Adam/NED MARINE...NED