880
FXUS64 KCRP 090748
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
248 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected today and
Monday across a majority of South Texas and minor to moderate
across the Victoria area.

The heat continues with Heat Index values (apparent temperatures)
expected to be generally 100 across the Victoria Crossroads to 109
across the remainder of S TX this afternoon and again Monday
afternoon. However, some locations across the inland Coastal Plains
to the Rio Grande may have brief heat indices around 110-112 as the
sea breeze pushes inland. Heat Index values are forecasted to be a
couple of degrees cooler on Monday, but still in the 100-109 range.

Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and
closer to normal on Monday due to an increase in clouds and decrease
in mid level temperatures with a trough overhead.

As for rain chances, models indicate a baggy, ill-defined trough
currently over northern Mexico, slowly moving across the region
today through Monday with embedded short waves, which has the
potential to provide weak upper level support for convection. Models
are in agreement with moisture deepening across S TX through this
afternoon, but disagree on just how much moisture. The GFS is the
most aggressive with pockets of PWATs up to 2.5 inches by tonight
and brings convection (possibly and MCS) from the western Hill
Country down into S TX overnight. Most models show PWATs generally
1.7 to 2 inches and show little convection moving into S TX due
to increasing CIN overnight.

With increasing moisture, upper level support and an unstable
airmass, am expecting convection that develops north-northwest of
the CWA will track southward, but diminish as it moves into the
northern Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains and encounters increasing
CIN tonight. Therefore, there is a low (10-20%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms across this area and silent 5-10 PoPs across the
remainder of S TX. There is a low (10-20%) chance of convection
across all of S TX Monday as another short wave tracks across the
region and taps into the deep moisture. Kept PoPs low due to a
capping inversion, but this may change if the cap weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat-related impacts through the week as heat
index values peak around 110

A weak cold front will approach South Texas Monday evening, with a
medium chance of showers and thunderstorms developing northwest of
San Antonio. This convection may grow into a cluster and extend into
the Rio Grande Plains Monday night, either accelerating the cold
front into our northern tier counties or pushing an outflow through
the area. Maintained the low chance (20%) of showers and storms
making their way into the Rio Grande Plains as a shortwave passes
and changes mid-level flow out of the northwest. Any offshore flow
Tuesday morning will quickly return southeasterly in the afternoon
with the sea breeze and persist through the rest of the week.

An amplified mid-level trough will plunge from North Texas to
Southeast Texas Tuesday into Wednesday, with the GFS/NAM extending
the trough into South Texas whereas the ECMWF/CMC keep the trough to
our northeast. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday may be a time
frame where rain chances are most likely to change as we approach
midweek and confidence increases. For now, the discrepancies push me
towards keeping silent PoPs (less than 15%).

Thursday through the weekend will be dominated by ridging aloft to
our north and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf creating
northeasterly flow aloft and increasing heat concerns and rain-free
conditions. Heat index values will generally range 105 to 109
through the week but a moderate to major risk of heat-related
impacts Tuesday and Wednesday increases to a major to extreme risk
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours,
though brief MVFR visibility and ceilings are possible, generally
from 09Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist today through Monday.
There is a low (10-20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the offshore waters today and tonight, becoming a low to medium (20-
30%) chance across the bays and coastal waters by Monday. Weak to
moderate onshore flow expected to persist today through next
week. There is a low 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the open waters today through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  80  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
Victoria          96  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
Laredo           103  79 101  79 /  10  10  20  20
Alice             99  78  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Rockport          93  80  93  79 /  10  10  20  10
Cotulla          103  79 101  78 /  10  20  20  20
Kingsville        96  80  96  76 /  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       92  83  91  82 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...LS