Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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870 FXUS64 KCRP 060449 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The line of showers and thunderstorms that pushed across the eastern half of the CWA this morning has drifted into the coastal waters as of writing. Strong winds have persisted behind it with gusts to 35-40 knots currently occurring across portions of the southern Coastal Bend and over the marine zones. The question is...will convection redevelop later this afternoon and evening? Well, uncertainty remains fairly high with CAMs continuing to diverge significantly in development and progression of additional storms. The driving factor for this afternoon and evening`s round of convection lies primarily on the passage of a mid-level shortwave on the eastern periphery of a ridge near the Four Corners. To add to it, very high instability remains in place especially across the west with CAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg based on LAPS analysis, along with very steep lapse rates. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast have opted for siding with the NBM and maintaining PoPs below 30% through tonight, but keeping in mind that updates will be needed if convection is allowed to fire up. DCAPE values are also very high (>1500 J/kg), therefore strong winds will continue to be a primary hazard for any thunderstorm that is able to form. With such high instability large hail certainly remains a threat as well. SPC has maintained the area under a Marginal risk for severe weather through 12Z Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish areawide Thursday into Thurday night as the aforementioned ridge begins to build further east. Very warm temperatures are in store again on Thursday with another Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts. However, temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, and mostly Advisory conditions are expected tomorrow. In regards to the coastal flood, another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the next high tide cycle. Although seas, winds and swell periods will continue to subside offshore, tides have been running over a foot above predicted. Given this trend continues, P-ETTS indicate tide levels reaching 1.9-2.0 MSL again tomorrow, hence the Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues with a moderate to major risk for heat- related impacts As we move into the end of the work week, a high-pressure ridge will build over the region. The resulting increased stability will significantly reduce the chances of rain through the weekend. However, by late Sunday, the ridge will start to weaken as a mid- level low and attendant trough moves southward across the Midwest. Operational guidance is hinting at indications of an unusual June cold front arriving mid-week next week. Bringing back low chances 20- 30% for precipitation Monday with slightly lower chances 15-25% Tuesday and around a 15% chance Wednesday. Confidence is not high as model guidance diverges around this time so will have to monitor the trends. Stay tuned for updates! In the meantime, temperatures will relax a bit as slightly drier air is expected to result in Heat indices between 105-109 degrees, posing a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts through the long term period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 CIGs and VSBYs are expected to be predominantly VFR overnight with periods of MVFR. ALI to VCT are the most likely to have patchy fog and low clouds toward early Thursday morning. The SREF probability of visibilities less than 1SM is low (<20%). Thus, IFR conditions are not expected, but can not be ruled out. Have included TEMPOs to address brief MVFR conditions generally after 08Z through around 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail during the day Thursday along with light south to southeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the coastal waters this afternoon, with very strong winds possible with this activity. Once the storms clear out, winds will become weak to moderate in the evening, decreasing to weak levels by early Thursday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist across the Gulf waters through this evening as seas have been slower to subside. Weak onshore flow Friday becomes weak to moderate flow Saturday and persists into next week. There is a low 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increasing to low to moderate 20 to 45% chance Monday and Tuesday next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 96 78 95 / 20 10 0 0 Victoria 76 98 75 97 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 79 102 77 103 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 77 100 76 98 / 20 10 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 92 / 20 10 0 0 Cotulla 78 103 77 103 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 80 98 78 96 / 20 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 92 81 91 / 20 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...TE/81