876
FXUS61 KCTP 312353
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Pleasant rain-free end to May and splendid start to June
*Chance of showers and thunderstorms returns on Sunday
*Trending warmer, more humid, and more unsettled next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ideal radiational cooling setup again tonight (with abnormally
dry/low pwat air in place and sfc ridge axis overhead) supports
minimum temps at or below the 5-10th percentile NBM or closer
to the tabular MAVMOS (which verified much better last night)
particularly in the northern tier. The end result is another
late season frost risk focused over the interior north central
mtns where a frost advy was issued from 1-7AM Saturday.
Air/water spreads exceeding 20-25 degrees should also support
fog in the northern river/stream valleys overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another chilly to seasonably cool morning followed by a
splendid start to the weekend/month of June. Mostly sunny and
pleasant on Saturday with low humidity and highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s.

Clouds increase Saturday night ahead of shortwave trough and
associated sfc low tracking eastward from the Ohio Valley. This
system will likely bring rain and a few thunderstorms to central
PA on Sunday before exiting to the south/east late Sunday night.

High pressure and building ridge aloft returning on Monday
should provide a mostly dry but more humid start to next week
with temps trending warmer on the margin.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended timeframe looking similar to previous thinking and
guidance with multiple shortwaves moving through the region
Monday night through most of next week bringing renewed chances
for showers and storms. NBM advertises chance to likely POPs
from Monday night through Thursday, with much drier and cooler
weather likely by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light winds and mainly clear skies are prevailing across central
Pennsylvania airspace this evening. Tonight would make for a
good radiational cooling night, but with a lack of moisture fog
formation will be difficult. Patchy fog is possible in NW PA,
but confidence is low (<20%), thus a mention has not been made
in the 00Z TAF package for BFD.

Winds will remain light tomorrow with VFR conditions continuing
across the area.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions.

Sun...PM Sct showers and thunderstorms

Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.

Tue-Wed...Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With only 1 day left, the preliminary monthly summary for May
2024 would be notably warmer than the historical average
(ranking in the top 5-25th warmest) with near to above normal
precipitation. CLMs should be issued overnight on the midshift.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ005-006-
010-011.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl