572
FXUS61 KCTP 092317
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
717 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*We will see spotty showers or thundershowers across the
 northern and western highlands this evening ahead of a
 reinforcing shot of cooler air.
*This reinforcing shot of cooler air will keep highs 5 to 15F
 below average on Monday.
*Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as
 high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low
 humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
An approaching vort max is generating spotty showers across
primarily northern and western PA this evening, and this
activity should continue to push southeastward in the 5-11PM
timeframe before dissipating overnight.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air will be ushered in overnight
behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop
into the 40s in the northern tier and the mid to upper 50s in
the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft will
support more clouds than sun and isolated showers or sprinkles
across the northern tier. Monday will be the coolest day of the
week as temperatures struggle to reach 60 degrees across the
northern tier. Even the Lower Susq Valley should only top out in
the mid 70s. These high temperatures will be 5F to 15F degrees
below average for mid-June.

Another cool night is in store for Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s across the Allegheny Plateau to the mid
50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. Tuesday
and Wednesday do look dry as a lack of moisture will make it
difficult for showers to form, despite the upper level low
overhead.

Around this date last year wet went from being very dry to
wet. The last few months have been quite wet across much of
central PA. Now it looks we will go from wet to dry, again
just about one year to date.

After a few chilly days, mainly Monday, rather warm temperatures
are expected on Thursday into Friday. However, dewpoints not
fcst very much above 60 degrees, so humidity levels will not
change the apparent temperature much.

Next chance of showers and storms will be Friday, as a cold
front drops southeast. Not outlook for anything at this point,
height falls not all that much, and moisture limited.

High pressure builds in behind the front for a dry weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler again, but more typical for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR as of 18z Sun. Expect continued fair
weather cu with bases near 5000 ft and wind gusts up to 25 kts
from 290-310 deg this afternoon. An approaching vort max this
evening will bring a chance for showers and thundershowers
across the northern tier of PA mainly from 22z Sun to 03z Mon,
potentially impacting BFD.

A secondary sfc cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of
cooler air and considerable cloudiness late tonight into
Monday. There is a high chance (~90%) that ceilings over the
western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR by
daybreak Monday, with a ~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings.
Restrictions will likely last through much of the day Monday.
Farther to the south and east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT)
could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley
(MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs likely, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions poss with if afternoon/evening convection
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Evanego/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Evanego/Colbert
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego