117
FXUS61 KCTP 091854
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*This afternoon will be pleasant albeit breezy with northwest
 winds and a mix of clouds and sun.
*Isolated showers or thundershowers may develop across the
 northern tier this evening ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold
 air, which will keep highs 5 to 15F below average on Monday.
*Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as
 high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low
 humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies will be partly sunny across central PA for the remainder
of the afternoon. An approaching vort max this evening will
bring a chance for showers and thundershowers (40 pct PoPs) across
the northern tier of PA mainly from 6-11PM. Otherwise today
will be breezy and relatively cool with highs ranging from the
mid 60s in the north to near 80 in the southern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will be ushered in overnight
behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop
into the upper 40s in the northern tier and the upper 50s in
the southeast. On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave
aloft will support more clouds than sun and isolated showers or
sprinkles across the northern tier. Monday will be the coldest
day of the week as temperatures struggle to make it out of the
50s in the northern tier. High temperatures will be -5F to -15F
compared to average for this time of year.

Another chilly night is in store for Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations in the Laurel
Highlands and northwest mountains to mid 50s in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. Tuesday
and Wednesday do look dry as a lack of moisture will make it
difficult for showers to form, despite the upper level low
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures will be on a warning trend for Thu and Fri, with
high temps making a run at the low 90s across the south by
Friday. There could also be some showers and t-storms by
Friday, as a cold front drops southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance that
far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR as of 18z Sun. Expect continued fair
weather cu with bases near 5000 ft and wind gusts up to 25 kts
from 290-310 deg this afternoon. An approaching vort max this
evening will bring a chance for showers and thundershowers
across the northern tier of PA mainly from 22z Sat to 03z Sun,
potentially impacting BFD.

A secondary sfc cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of
cooler air and considerable cloudiness late tonight into
Monday. There is a high chance (~90%) that ceilings over the
western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR by
daybreak Monday, with a ~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings.
Restrictions will likely last through much of the day Monday.
Farther to the south and east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT)
could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley
(MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs likely, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions poss with if afternoon/evening convection
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego