Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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807 FXUS61 KCTP 090936 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 536 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... *Showers across the north this morning will gradually weaken as they drift southeast, giving way to a pleasant afternoon with breezy northwest winds and a mix of clouds and sun. *Isolated showers along and north of I-80 may develop tonight and Monday as a reinforcing shot of cold air keeps highs -5 to -15F compared to average for this time of year. *Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Continuing to track a decaying batch of showers this morning associated with a cold front that will drift southeastward during the day today. MRMS rainfall as of 0530AM/0930Z indicates a stripe of >0.25" accumulations right along the NY/PA border quickly dropping to almost no accumulation along I-80 at this time. The coverage and intensity of rainfall will decrease with southern extent and rain and clear our eastern zones by noon time. Additional rainfall through midday should be less than a tenth of an inch. Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day. There could be some isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers in the northern tier (north of I-80) during the late afternoon and evening (PoPs less than 40 pct). Otherwise the afternoon looks dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 in the southern tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A reinforcing shot of cold air will be ushered in overnight behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 40s in the northern tier and below 60s in the southeast. On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft will support more clouds than sun and isolated showers across the northern tier. Monday will be the coldest day of the week as temperatures struggle to make it out of the 50s in the northern tier. High temperatures will be -5F to -15F compared to average for this time of year. Another chilly night is in store for Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains to mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Thickening clouds and lowering ceilings will continue to overspread central PA early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain showers will be most numerous across northern PA with areas southeast seeing some approach by daybreak. Expect a period of LLWS over the western highlands and central mtns overnight as a 35-40kt southwesterly jet passes overhead, and this is noted in the TAFs. Additionally, there is a good chance (~70%) that ceilings over the western highlands (BFD, JST) will flirt with IFR conds by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Farther to the east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period. Clouds will gradually dissipate on Sunday, as the cold front slips to our southeast and drier air works back into central PA. We should see VFR conds areawide by Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs poss, mainly north. Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Banghoff LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego