978
FXUS61 KCTP 020314
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1114 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak shortwave will track across Pennsylvania late Sunday,
followed by upper level ridging early next week. A slow moving
cold front will cross the region during the middle of the week,
then an upper level trough will build over the region late week
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging along the east coast will ensure fair
weather overnight. However, warm advection aloft ahead of an
upstream shortwave will spread thickening cirrus into Central
PA. Light wind, dry air and mostly clear skies this evening
may allow temps to dip a bit below NBM guidance over the eastern
edge of the forecast area. Otherwise, sticking close to NBM
guidance, with lows in the 50s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surge in pwats 1-1.5" ahead of weakening shortwave trough
will spread mainly light/passing showers from west to east
across central PA Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends are
slower with the progression of the showers shifting max POPs
later Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night. Cloud cover
will greatly limit instability with HREF depicting almost no
CAPE tomorrow -- so thunderstorms are unlikely. Expect a cloudy
end to the first weekend of June with max temps trending cooler
than Saturday, especially over the W Mtn where thickening clouds
will arrive first.

Building upper level ridge to 580dm early next week should
favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, airmass will be trending
warmer and more humid, so can`t rule out spotty diurnally
driven convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper
level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather
Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range
guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England
coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively
stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most
concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the
passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded
front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes
suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around a
half inch.

Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as
the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with
the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally-
driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns,
associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the
Grt Lks.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Sunday with high (> 90%)
confidence. A high-level (10-15kft) SCT-to-BKN deck is expected
to traverse across the area during the overnight period with
some lighter winds and dry air limiting any fog potential
overnight into Sunday morning. After 15Z Sunday, some lower
level clouds (~5000ft AGL) will move into the western terminals
(BFD/JST) ahead of scattered rain showers with some potential
for lower visibilities. Rain showers will then overspread across
the central mountains after 18Z Sunday but not quite reach the
eastern airfields by 00Z Monday. As the showers become more
widespread lower cigs will begins to encroach in the west as
well with MVFR ceilings possible for BFD/JST. Scattered showers
will linger into the early morning hours on Monday before
tapering off and allowing for fog to develop as clearing
occurs.

Outlook...

Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.

Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA with restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May
 T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May
4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May
2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May
Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl