Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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775 FXUS63 KDDC 251010 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 510 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected along and east of US-283 Saturday afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. - Warm, dry conditions are likely early next week. - Widespread precipitation chances increase Tuesday through the end of the period, along with near or just below normal afternoon temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals a modestly amplified trough is moving across the far western CONUS, with associated surface lee cyclogenesis already beginning across southeast CO. As this feature continues east during the day Saturday and ejects onto the High Plains by 00Z Sunday, the surface trough will deepen to ~992-mb, with strengthening low-level flow around it over the southern and central plains. While there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the degree of moisture return, all guidance agrees at least mid-50s dewpoints will advance northward ahead of a sharpening N-S oriented dryline that will mix east to around US-283 by mid-afternoon. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of the upper level wave, the modest cap that will be in place (+9-11C at 700-mb) will likely be breached, allowing isolated, high-based convective initiation along the dryline during the 22-00Z time frame. The environment ahead of the dryline will be characterized by at least 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE and 50-60 kts of bulk shear, which will support updraft organization into a primarily supercellular storm mode posing a risk for all severe hazards. The tornado threat is highly conditional on moisture quality, which appears likely to be initially insufficient. However, as supercells reach our eastern zones (mainly along and east of US-183), continued moist advection on the shoulders of an intensifying low-level jet may draw low-60s to perhaps mid-60s dewpoints into our area, fostering an uptick in tornado potential. Given impressive low-level curvature in forecast hodographs and the expected discrete storm mode, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center`s Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) over areas east of US-283 and south of KS-96 appears warranted. By 04Z Sunday, all convection will clear southwest KS, and a cold front will begin to move through our area behind the departing surface low. Northwesterly winds in the wake of the front will usher in cooler air, although DNVA on the western periphery of the exiting upper level trough will support clear skies all day Sunday, and afternoon highs will still reach the low 80s north to the upper 80s/near 90 south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles agree weak upper level ridging will begin to take form over the western CONUS, and move slowly east through Tuesday. This pattern will support dry, warm conditions across the central plains, with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening through the end of the long term period as weak vorticity lobes crest the upper level ridge Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an approaching upper level trough on Friday. The GEFS is the most bullish in terms of QPF, with probability of QPF > 0.1" at or above 50-60% through Friday. While the ECMWF EPS is notably quieter, the probability of QPF > 0.1" still reaches the 50-70% range on a few occasions, mainly Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. This more active pattern will also be associated with temperatures near or just below normal for most areas, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and east of US-83. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 510 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds have begun to increase out of the southeast and will continue until they reach the 18-23 kt range with gusts of 28-33 kts by mid-morning. These winds will persist through 00Z when a gradual weakening trend will commence owing to the loss of boundary layer mixing. Late in the period, winds will begin to veer to southwest/westerly then northwesterly as a cold front moves through southwest KS. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer