Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
974 FXUS63 KDDC 220402 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1102 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms across west central Kansas. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across much of southwest Kansas this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 As of 7 PM, thunderstorms were beginning to spread into west central Kansas. Mesoanalysis from the SPC indicated surface to 925 mb frontogenesis improving along an outflow boundary extending from extreme northwest Hamilton County to western Wichita County. North of this boundary, gusty northwest winds were developing, with the latest observation from Holly reporting wind gusts of 42 mph. Several CAMs indicated a brief period of isolated wind gusts of near 50 mph and small hail being possible behind this boundary as it moves west and north of Garden City through 9 PM. The isolated wind gusts near 50 mph currently appears to be a reasonable solution given the 8-12 degree drop in surface temperatures over the past three hours. This evening, the primary hazard will be gusty winds and small hail, as the storms weaken while moving east into a more stable air mass over the next few hours. A second round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated around midnight as 850-700 mb frontogenesis improves ahead of an upper level trough as it crosses eastern Colorado. This second round is expected to bring more widespread precipitation as it moves through west central and north central Kansas during the pre-dawn hours. Isolated wind gusts and lightning will also be possible, though wind gusts are not expected to be as strong as those occurring before sunset. Rainfall may be more widespread but it will also be light with a 20-50% chance for rainfall totals to be >0.10". Based on the latest CAMs, the chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight will be increased across west central and north central Kansas. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the 40s to lower 50s, but will trend towards a quicker drop in temperatures through midnight as the outflow passes this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest ahead of a broader scale trough transitioning east through the Central Rockies. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southeast into northern Oklahoma. There is a 20-30% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across west central Kansas early in the period as the SREF shows an upper level shortwave trough pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening. Although instability will be limited as northerlies continue to funnel in drier air into the region, CAMs do suggest shower/thunderstorm development early this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject east out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with H7 frontogenetic banding developing in wake of the cold front pushing southward into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest HREF indicates a very minimal 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across west central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas near the Colorado border by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures are forecast to be a little below seasonal tonight as surface high pressure moving in from the west helps reinforce a cooler air mass across the region. The HREF paints a 60-70% probability of lows dropping below 50F in west central Kansas to only a 30-40% probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas. Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with a cooler air mass slow to erode across western Kansas due to a slowly departing surface high to the east, returning south-southeasterlies mid/late afternoon. The HREF indicates an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 70F in west central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F in south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The next reasonable chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms will be late Thursday/early Friday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough swinging eastward through the Northern Rockies Thursday, and farther into the Northern Plains Thursday night, setting up an increasingly difluent west-southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response to the approaching system, surface low pressure is projected to develop/deepen in eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon with an attendant sharpening dryline extending south into the Texas Panhandle, then advancing eastward Thursday evening. Ample moisture return ahead of the advancing dryline, and subsequent cold front from the northwest, will help push surface dewpoints up into the 60s(F), increasing instability. Although timing/track remain uncertain, thunderstorm development is expected late afternoon/evening as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with the aforementioned dryline/front. The best chance for storms will be across central/south central Kansas where the NBM paints a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Friday morning. Much drier air filling in behind the advancing dryline will keep much of southwest Kansas dry. Spotty precip chances (20%) may linger into Saturday/Sunday as a relatively weak upper level perturbation quickly moves through the Western High Plains within a fairly zonal flow aloft. Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Thursday as prevailing southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well up into the mid/upper 20s(C) by late afternoon. The NBM shows an 80% probability of of highs exceeding 80F in central and south central Kansas with an 80% probability of highs climbing above 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as warm Friday in wake of the cold frontal passage, but temperatures should rebound a little Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR expected through TAF pd. Some -shra and perhaps isolated tsra through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and variable underneath a high pressure center. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Burgert SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Sugden