738
FXUS63 KDDC 242340
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Saturday

- There is a 30-40% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across central and south central Kansas late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across the
Upper Midwest, giving way to weak ridging aloft transitioning east
through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is
drifting east through the high plains of northeast Colorado/southwest
Nebraska into northwest Kansas.

Tranquil conditions are forecast through much of the period as the
SREF shows weak ridging aloft shifting east through the Western High
Plains tonight, and farther out into the Central Plains Saturday. A
much drier air mass reinforced by surface high pressure moving
through the Western High Plains will keep precip chances (<10%) at
bay through early afternoon Saturday. Fairly seasonal temperatures
are expected tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies. The
HREF points to a 40-60% probability of temperatures dropping below
50F in west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-90%
probability of lows below 55F elsewhere. Unseasonably warm temperatures
are forecast Saturday as a strengthening lee side trough in eastern
Colorado brings about a more southerly flow to western Kansas, drawing
much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures pushing above
20C in central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) in extreme southwest Kansas.
With the HREF painting a 40-60% probability of temperatures exceeding
85F in central Kansas to a 70-80% probability of an exceedance of
90F in extreme southwest Kansas, look for afternoon highs well up
into the 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower/mid 90s(F) across
much of southwest Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Thunderstorm chances (30-40%) remain in the forecast early in the
period as medium range ensembles indicate an open upper level trough
pushing east into the Colorado Rockies late Saturday, setting up
an intensifying southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
In response, a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado is projected
to push eastward into northwest Kansas Saturday evening while ample
moisture continues to pool ahead of an advancing dryline, pushing
surface dewpoints up into the upper 50s(F) and the 60s(F).
Additionally, more favorable dynamics aloft will be present as
the northwest exit region of a +100kt jet spreads eastward through
southwest Kansas into south central Kansas early Saturday evening.
With steepening mid-level lapse rates and significant instability
ahead of the dryline, thunderstorm development is expected late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as H5 vort maxima eject
northeast out of the approaching trough axis, interacting with
increased forcing in a zone of low level convergence associated
with the dryline. The strong flow aloft will enhance deep layer
shear, increasing the potential for severe storms, including
isolated tornadoes. The best chance for storms continues to focus
across central and south central Kansas where the NBM shows a
20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter inch by early
Sunday morning. A less active period can then be expected into
early next week as weak ridging aloft slowly builds in across the
Intermountain West, and eventually moves out into the Western
High Plains.

Temperatures will not be quite as warm Sunday as cooler air spreads
into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage Saturday night,
dropping H85 temperatures a little below 20C in central Kansas to
near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM shows a 70-80%
probability of highs exceeding 80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor
to an 80-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F in south
central Kansas and a portion of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma
border. Similar temperatures are expected through early next week
as weak ridging aloft approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Light and variable winds early tonight will become southeast at
around 10 knots between 09z by 12z Saturday as an area of high
pressure at the surface moves east towards the Mid Mississippi
Valley and a trough of low pressure at the surface starts to
develop along the lee of the Rockies in response to an
approaching upper level trough. This surface boundary will
continue to deepen Saturday morning as it moves east towards
westerly Kansas. A result the southeast wind at 10 knots at 12z
Saturday are expected to increase to around 25 knots by 18z
Saturday. These gusty southerly winds will back to the
southwest Saturday afternoon as a surface boundary moves across
western Kansas. BUFR soundings showing VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert