Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
588 FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with M-class flare activity from AR3697 (S18W20, Fac/beta-gamma-delta). The first was a M2.4 flare at 04/0609 UT which was then followed by a M1.6 flare at 04/0904 UTC. This region remained the largest, most complex on the visible solar disk, but showed signs of decay in its leading spots and intermediate penumbra. Regions 3691 (N24W74, Cao/beta), 3695 (N25W60, Cro/beta) and 3701 (S05W10, Dao/beta) were all culprits of C-class flare activity as well. Region 3703 (S07E04, Cro/beta) exhibited overall growth while gaining separation between its leading and trailing spot groups. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate to high levels through 07 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 07 Jun. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 07 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences. Total field decreased from 14 nT to 5 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component began the period reaching southward deflections of -7 to -8 nT, but has sense be mostly northward. Solar wind speeds ended the period near 460 km/s and Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Glancing influences from the 01 Jun CME may cause enhanced conditions early on 05 Jun. Otherwise, a return to an ambient-like state is expected on 06 Jun, lasting through 07 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Early active conditions are possible on 05 Jun with any glancing effects from the late arrival of the 01 Jun CME event. Otherwise, predominantly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are expected to prevail by 06 Jun continuing through 07 Jun.