Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
923 FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels with a handful of M-class flares. Region 3697 (S18W07, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) underwent decay and separation in its largest penumbral area while also developing additional leading spots. This region was the culprit of a few M-class flares to include an M1.0 at 03/0459 UTC, a M3.2 at 03/1149 UTC, and a M2.8 at 03/1227 UTC. Region 3695 (N27W47, Cao/beta) exhibited decay amongst its leading spots and produced a M4.8 flare at 03/1411 UTC, which was the largest of the period. Region 3703 (S08W18, Dao/beta) continued to develop rapidly from the previous reporting period, signaling maturing penumbra on both poles. Region 3705 (N17W47, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. New spots were noted near S21W24 and S12E41, but remain unnumbered at this time given their stature and lack of activity. Additional activity included a tenflare of 910 sfu at 03/1152 UTC that was associated with the M3.2 flare at 03/1149 UTC from AR3697. Ejecta was seemingly observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 angstroms beginning at approximately 03/1407 UTC in association with the M4.8 flare from AR3695. However, only a weak, narrow and faint CME with a northerly trajectory was observed in SOHO C2 coronagraph imagery as a result. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 06 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 05 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 06 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal for the majority of the reporting period. However, beginning around 03/2130 UTC an enhancement, likely transient in nature, materialized. Total field reached 18 nT along with the Bz component of the field. Wind speeds however, remained benign, only increasing to ~370 km/s. Phi was mostly variable throughout the period. .Forecast... The 01 Jun CME mentioned above may cause enhanced conditions from late on 04 Jun into 05 Jun. A return to an ambient-like state is expected on 06 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels at the end of the period. .Forecast... Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 04 Jun with the nearby passing of the 01 Jun CME. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 05 Jun as CME influence wane. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 06 Jun.