Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
539 FXXX12 KWNP 121231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with only minor C-class flares observed. Region 3709 (S09E08, Cai/beta) exhibited weak redevelopment in its intermediate and trailing spots, yet only yielded an isolated C2 flare at 12/0553 UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the period: Region 3712 (S23E58, Dao/beta), and Region 3713 (S12E74, Cao/beta). Region 3712 added a C2.7 flare at 12/0728 UTC, while Region 3713 remained quiet. The remaining active regions were stable and relatively quiet. Region 3697 (S19, L=348) was likely responsible for the halo CME first observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery at approximately 11/2306 UTC. Due to its location well beyond the SW limb, no Earth-directed component is expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a decreasing chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 14 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux had decreased to near background levels until approximately 12/0030 UTC, when it began to rise slowly in response to the halo CME from beyond the western limb. Activity reached just below the 10 pfu threshold (9.69 pfu at 12/0520 UTC) before leveling off through the end of the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 14 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation levels on 12 Jun. Levels should begin to tapper off by 13 Jun, and eventually return to near background levels by 14 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a background solar wind regime. Total field dropped below 5 nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, and wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive with isolated oscillations into a negative orientation. .Forecast... Background conditions are anticipated through 14 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are anticipated through 14 Jun.