Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
846 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels. Regions 3695 (N26, L=027), 3697 (S19W38, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), and 3698 (N22W49, Dai/beta) all produced C-class flare activity. However, the largest flare was a C9.5 at 06/0014 UTC from a Region off the SE limb near S09. Region 3697 continued to be the largest and most complex spot group. Separation was observed in its northern most spots as well as growth in the trailers. Regions 3698 and 3703 (S08W16, Dac/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in their intermediate spots. The filament eruption in the NE starting around 05/1600 UTC was analyzed and determined to be not Earth-directed. Another CME off the NW limb, beginning at 05/2212 UTC, was analyzed and determined to have no Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate to high levels through 08 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 08 Jun. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 08 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 332-442 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... Nominal levels are expected on 06-07 Jun. Mildly enhanced conditions are expected on 08 Jun due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 06-07 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08 Jun due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.