Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
856 FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to numerous M-class flare activity. Region 3697 (S17W65, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of the period in the form of a long-duration M9.7/1f flare at 08/0149 UTC. Associated with this event was filament ejecta to the north and west, a 894 km/s Type II sweep, a Type IV sweep and a 460 sfu Tenflare. This region also produced five additional M-class flares, all less than M5. The region continued to be the largest and most complex spot group on the disk and showed little changed over the period. Region 3709 (S10E67, Cai/beta) produced an M1.8/Sf at 08/0028 UTC. Regions 3698 (N22W75, Eao/beta) and 3703 (S08W45, Dac/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in their intermediate spots. There appears to be a possible new region rotating onto the disk a few degrees to the east of Region 3709. An asymmetric-halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0148 UTC. A majority of the initial shock was viewed in the western quadrant and was related to the M9.7 flare mentioned above. Subsequent analysis and model output suggests an Earth impact midday on 10 June. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux responded to the M9.7 flare, and reached a peak flux of 1,030 pfu at 08/0800 UTC. The 100 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold and reached a peak flux of 8.85 pfu at 08/0625 UTC. Both flux values remain elevated. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 10 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the S2/Moderate) levels through 09 June. S1/Minor levels are expected early on 10 June before falling below event threshold on 11 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to what is likely transient passage. At approximately 07/1045 UTC, total field steadily increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 07/1358 UTC and Bz reached a deflection of -15 nT. Solar wind speeds were at ~360 km/s then increased to 500 km/s for the latter half of the UT day. Phi was variable. .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected on 08-09 Jun due to the continued transient influence and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS on 08-10 Jun. By midday or so on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME are likely to impact conditions on Earth. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels with transient passage. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected on 08 Jun with continued transient influence and arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS influence. Active to major storm (G2/Moderate) levels are expected on 10 Jun due to CME effects from the 08 June M9.7 event.