Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
053
FNUS73 KDLH 032143
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Academy...MN DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
443 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on June 04.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday morning is expected to be rain-free, with precipitation
chances increasing during the afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the west. Smoke dispersal starts out poor during the early
morning and improves to fair by late morning as mixing heights
increase to 2000-2500 ft by Noon CDT. Relative humidity remains
high throughout the morning due to dewpoints in the low to mid
60s.
Showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west by early
Tuesday afternoon along a cold front. Some of the storms could be
severe with the potential for hail up to 1 inch in diameter and
wind gusts up to 60 mph. The window of severe weather will
primarily be between 2-5 PM, but lingering showers and non-severe
thunderstorms will persist into at least the early evening. Rainfall
amount forecasts have increased, ranging from 0.75-1.25 inches,
most of which will occur with the more robust storms in the
afternoon. Non-thunderstorm winds out of the southeast quickly
ramp up to around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph from late
morning into early afternoon ahead of the storms/cold front and
quickly turn westerly behind the front. Humidity values will
remain elevated through the day Tuesday due to increasing
dewpoints in the morning, as well as showers and storms in the
afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm chances end by mid-evening, with rain chances ending
in the late evening prior to midnight. Winds turn light at 5-7 mph out
of the west to southwest from mid-evening into Tuesday night with
skies becoming mostly clear overnight. The minimum temperature
dips to the low-50s by early Wednesday morning.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1000, then 2 until 1200, then 3 until
1400, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 22 mph shifting to the southwest with
gusts to around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph shifting to the
southwest around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5300-22700 knot-ft) increasing to
good (35900-47900 knot-ft) late in the morning,
then increasing to good to excellent
(43000-73000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon
decreasing to fair (23200 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.97 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 60 80 90 80
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4
Temp............59 62 64 68 70 73 75 77 76 76 73 70
RH..............100 93 90 81 78 73 71 69 71 69 73 76
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 8
20 FT wind gust.12 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 22 21 20 19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.8
Transp wind dir.SE S S SE S S S S S S SW SW
Transp wind spd.12 13 16 18 18 22 24 26 25 22 21 15
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10005 8 12 21 23 36 48 73 71 54 43 23
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2000, then 2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6300-25300 knot-ft) decreasing to
poor (4200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.24 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 30 10 0 0
LAL.............4 2 1 1 1 1
Temp............68 63 58 54 52 51
RH..............76 78 83 93 93 93
20 ft wind......SW 8 W 8 W 6 W 5 SW 5 SW 5
20 ft wind gust.16 14 12 11 11 11
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 1200 500 500 500 400
Transport wind..W 16 W 12 W 10 W 10 SW 10 SW 12
Haines index....3 4 4 4 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100025 12 4 4 4 5
$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...PSC3
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415561.0/DLH
.DELDT 06/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christopher.bergquist@state.mn.us