433
ACUS01 KWNS 111209
SWODY1
SPC AC 111208

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the
primary threats.

...West Central TX...
Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western
north TX, tracking slowly southeastward.  This activity is
associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm
advection over the region.  An outflow boundary along the southern
flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air
mass.  Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT
risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail.

...CO/NM...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form
over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO.  These
storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty
winds and hail for a few hours before weakening.

...Upper MS Valley...
A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley
this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas
approaches the region.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating
period.  The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty
winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024

$$