Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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569 ACUS01 KWNS 111623 SWODY1 SPC AC 111622 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 $$