604
FNUS22 KWNS 061952
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.

..Barnes.. 06/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.

...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.

Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$