342
ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind
appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be
possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi
Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south
as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern
borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds
helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and
developing cold front.

To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the
southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced
disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level
moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains
into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms
across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS.

...Central and northern High Plains...
Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence
will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from
eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging
outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear
will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far
northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail,
along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds
increase during the evening.

...From TX into the lower MS Valley...
Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the
ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are
more concentrated.

To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and
scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of
the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del
Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along
with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts.
Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that
scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later
outlooks.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2024

$$