042
ACUS02 KWNS 030556
SWODY2
SPC AC 030554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday.

...Upper MS Valley into the Mid MO Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the
northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming
increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low
associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central
Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the
triple point. This secondary low is forecast to move from the
ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and
northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward
across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys.

Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this
front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS
Valley despite limited heating (i.e. highs only in the mid to upper
70s). Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from
southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where
stronger daytime heating is possible (i.e. highs in the mid 80s).

Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold
front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy. Limited
buoyancy and more meridional deep-layer flow will likely temper the
severe potential across the Upper MS Valley with a multicellular,
anafrontal storm mode most likely. Some isolated damaging gusts
and/or hail is still possible. Greater severe potential is possible
across the Mid MO valley, where stronger buoyancy and more
zonal/boundary-parallel deep-layer shear is anticipated. An
initially more cellular mode is possible, with large hail as the
primary severe risk. A relatively quick transition to a more linear
mode is likely, with damaging gusts becoming the primary risk.

...KS/OK..
A surface low will likely be over the southwest KS/northwest OK
vicinity early Tuesday morning. This low may shift gradually
northeastward while another low develops farther south over
northwest TX where strong diurnal heating and southwesterly
low-level flow will help push temperatures over 100. Modest
troughing will extend between these two lows during the
afternoon/evening.

The influence of the front will be much less across OK and KS versus
areas farther north. Instead, convergence along the troughing
connecting the two surface lows and strong heating may be enough to
over the capping. Mid-level temperatures will be quite warm (i.e.
from 12 to 14 deg C at 700 mb), but if convective initiation is
realized, ample low-level moisture will support robust updrafts
capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts. Uncertainty
regarding initiation precludes anything but 5% hail/wind
probabilities with this outlook.

...Elsewhere...
One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible
across the eastern CONUS, including one over the Mid MS Valley and
another over the Mid-South early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development
is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon
as the airmass destabilizes, but weak shear should keep the severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 06/03/2024

$$