Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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764 FXUS63 KEAX 030422 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A couple rounds of thunderstorms are expected between now and Tuesday night. A few stronger storms could produce wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail, or local flooding. - Drier, less humid conditions expected Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, a zonal flow is currently dominating much of the Nation, with several small shortwave perturbations noted due to the MCVs generated by storms overnight seen across the Plains States. Activity from last nights decaying storms in eastern Kansas is still slowing shifting northeast through Missouri into Iowa, but has only resulted in isolated storms across far west, and northwest to north central Missouri. This limited activity will move northeast quickly through he rest of the afternoon, but is not expected to do much other than bring a quick bout of heavy rain. Otherwise, for today, the storms that keep developing to our west across Central Kansas and Nebraska are feeding on broad area south to north moisture advection that is occurring ahead of a trough that is moving through the intermountain west this afternoon. This afternoons activity is not expected to reach KC, and should keep falling apart as it moves east owing to the storms racing away from the moisture advection. Tonight into Monday...as the intermountain shortwave begins to exit into the Plains tonight the nocturnal jet will ramp up notably. With that will come still more moisture advection; and with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches poised across Oklahoma we expect this to feed another complex of storms across Nebraska and Kansas through Monday morning. Confidence in model solutions is not very high owing to the very nebulous nature of MCVs in a zonal flow with lots of available moisture. That said, model solutions indicate that storms will develop across the High Plains and move east overnight but will start falling apart as they move into eastern Nebraska and Kansas. However, towards Monday morning solutions indicate that the cold pool becomes dominate and the nocturnal jet begins to break up. Storms that do persist into Missouri Monday morning may have enough shear to warrant a threat of strong damaging winds, along with local flooding from the heavy rain. For the rest of Monday afternoon and Monday night expectations are that the morning activity will slowly decay as it moves through with a modest potential for more storms. Tuesday will see our next good chance for storms return as a shortwave, currently still over the Pacific, zips east quickly into the Northern Plains bringing a frontal passage Tuesday afternoon and evening. Available moisture, as the front moves through, indicates that heavy rain will be a threat again, though with the shear around a frontal boundary hail and wind may also be an issue. Otherwise, with the passage of the cold front expect the humidity to dip for the later half of the work week with temperatures climbing into the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn-ovc high clouds expected thru 10Z-11Z. Btn 10Z-14Z a decaying line of storms is expected to affect the TAF sites however cig/vis restrictions are not expected with bkn-ovc cigs around 7kft. Behind the line of storms, cigs are expected to be bkn-ovc around 4kft thru 19Z aft which just high clouds are expected. Winds will be out of the south thru the pd btn 7-12kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cutter AVIATION...73