Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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907 FXUS63 KEAX 051121 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 621 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures expected today but significantly less humid. - Potential for storms with heavy rainfall Friday night - Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Today - Friday: A drier air mass will move into the region today behind the cold front that brought showers and storms to the region Tuesday evening and overnight. Dewpoint temperatures through the day will be in the low to mid 50s, nearly 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. With temperatures near where they were Tuesday, the drier air will be noticeable. Another shortwave trough and it associated cold front will move into the region this evening. There will be some moisture advection back into the area ahead of this front but overall, it looks too dry for much, if any, additional showers or storms, with the exception of extreme northern MO. Still, confidence is not high enough to carry PoPs at this time. But that front will reinforce the drier air mass over the region for Thursday and most of the day Friday. Friday night - Saturday Morning: Focus then turns to Friday night into Saturday morning, with models showing potentially robust convection moving into the area within strong northwesterly flow. Model forecast MUCAPE values show there may be a sharp gradient instability gradient setup across eastern KS. At the moment, CAPE looks to be the limiting factor for severe convection. That said, with convection likely initiating to our northwest, storms will likely move southeastward along this gradient within the strong northwesterly flow. And given that strong flow, we`ll see deep-layer shear climb to 40-50 kts Friday night, oriented from the northwest. This has the look of a potential strong MCS, depending on the strength of the CAPE, for eastern KS and western MO. Additionally, models are forecasting precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" and potentially near 2". Ensemble guidance suggests this is above the 90th percentile for the time of year. So there will also be ample moisture for storms to work with. So in addition to the potential for a strong MCS to move into the area, there may be a flooding risk due to the high PW air mass moving into the region. Next Week: Upper-level shortwave ridging will spread east early next week. This will keep the area dry before a stronger shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains Monday night into Tuesday. As the cold front associated with shortwave trough moves southeastward through the area Tuesday. This will bring the next chance for showers and storms to the area. At the moment, the combination of instability and shear doesn`t look favorable severe weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds transition to westerly throughout the day, becoming light and northwest after 00Z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...BT