983
FXUS63 KEAX 162337
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are likely to continue through
  Friday.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a
large closed low over north central California with associated
troughing across much of the western CONUS and ridging with
large positive 850 mb temperature anomalies over much of the
Plains. A subtle shortwave trough translating through the south
southwesterly mid level flow off the Front Range has generated
some convection over central Kansas, but this is expected to
decay before it reaches our area. Diurnally driven isolated to
scattered pop up showers have developed across portions of central
and northern Missouri within the last half hour. These should come
to an end later this afternoon with the loss of peak afternoon
heating. High temperatures should reach the mid to even upper 80s by
mid afternoon. Some patchy fog may be possible early tomorrow
morning, and some showers may be possible tomorrow morning into
early tomorrow afternoon across far NW Missouri. Otherwise, tomorrow
should remain dry with high temperatures in the upper 80s.

As we head into Wednesday, the aforementioned mid level low and
trough over the west coast finally ejects across the central to
northern Plains, with an accompanying surface cold front nudging
its way into western Kansas. This will reintroduce slight
chance to chance PoPs on Wednesday, primarily for our far
eastern Kansas counties. Otherwise, high temperatures look to
remain in the upper 80s.

On Thursday, stronger ridging builds in east and south of a pair
of troughs over the west coast and the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest. This should yield high temperatures into the lower 90s
for most locations with breezy southerly winds and dew points in
the mid to upper 60s. Similar conditions are likely to prevail
into Friday, although temperatures and dew points may be a
degree or two warmer. Heat indices may range from the mid to
upper 90s on Friday afternoon, which will feel quite
uncomfortable for September 20th. Low end PoPs will be possible
both Thursday morning and again for Friday morning and
afternoon.

The aforementioned mid level low and associated trough over
southern California is progged to eject across the Rockies and
into the central High Plains this weekend, bringing higher end
chances for showers and thunderstorms. These showers/storms
could bring some much needed rainfall (ensembles and
probabilistic guidance suggest around a 20-30% chance for
rainfall to exceed 0.5" for eastern Kansas/NW Missouri/western
Missouri). Cooler temperatures are also likely for the weekend,
especially on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Scattered cloud cover is moving across the area but all bases
are at least 5-6 kft. Gusty winds from this afternoon will
continue to diminish with sunset. Fog is expected in central
Missouri, but right now not seeing any signal for fog at the
terminals so will leave visibility VFR for Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Krull