Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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997 FXUS63 KEAX 210503 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1203 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, with all severe hazards possible. - Active weather pattern for Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. Showers and storms possible each day with some potentially strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 On the synoptic scale, upper level ridging extends across the eastern U.S. from a large high pressure system anchored over Mexico, while deep troughing extends across the western U.S. from deep low pressure over central Canada. This general setup remains largely unchanged throughout the forecast period, which will allow for a progression of depressions to pass through our region bringing unsettled weather throughout the week. Latest surface analysis places a low pressure center over southern MN with a serpentine warm front extending east across the Great Lakes and a cold front extending SW into KS. This places our area well within the warm sector, allowing for increasing moist air advection and further destabilization ahead of the cold front. Current radar shows mostly dissipating convection across our eastern CWA as cloud temps continue to warm as evidenced by GOES-16 IR imagery. Latest CAMs continue to show discrete convection initiating into tonight as the environment boasts 2000 - 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and sufficient moisture as PWATs reside around 1.4 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Low confidence continues in exact timing or placement of potential storms this evening. Further complicating tomorrow`s forecast is the possibility of residual convective debris from any overnight storms upstream. Some models do indicate a layer of low clouds lingering from sunrise into the late morning, which could delay convective onset, especially in our western counties. As the cold front approaches, diurnal destabilization will result in steepening low to mid level lapse rates as strong low and mid level jetting persists into the afternoon hours. Upstream convection will likely evolve into a QLCS with the southern portion of this line of storms strengthening into the late afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday. Environmental parameters suggest the possibility of all severe hazards with this feature, and SPC has placed our area in a Day 2 Enhanced Risk. As of now, the best timing appears to be from 3pm to midnight. Showers and storms will linger Wednesday morning as the sfc cold front works to the southeast and stalls along the I-44 corridor. Most locations will dry out during the day as a weak area of sfc high pressure builds in over the area, a few showers/storms will be possible for our far southern and eastern parts of the CWA through the afternoon thanks to their proximity to the stalled boundary. Dry weather will continue into Thursday but turn warmer as the sfc high works eastward into the Ohio Valley as a weak upper shortwave ridge moves over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will go from the low/mid 70s on Wednesday climbing back into the upper 70s/low 80s for Thursday thanks to return flow behind the sfc high and the area of ridging. The pattern becomes active for the end of the week into the holiday weekend as a series of shortwave troughs work out of the Intermountain West along a quasi-zonal southwest oriented upper flow. Showers and storms will be possible each day as forecast soundings show good amount of instability and shear each afternoon with CIPS analog and CSU Machine learning keying in on at least a 15 percent probability of severe weather across the central plains over this time period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The 06Z TAF cycle we start with VFR conditions, which will likely prevail for much of the next 24 hours. The issue to watch will be the development of storms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri Tuesday afternoon. Timing and location are still nebulous, so have only included VCTS for the later afternoon hours in the terminals. Later TAF updates will be needed to pin down timing and what terminals will be effected. Otherwise, expect surface winds to veer to the southwest and get rather gusty ahead of the afternoon storms. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CMS AVIATION...Cutter