560
AXPZ20 KNHC 131521
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W from 04N northward into
the Gulf of Fonseca, moving westward around 20 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96.5W from 03N northward to
Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward
around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115.5W from 05.5N to 19.5N,
moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is
described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 127W from 05N to 17N, moving
slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 137W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 10.5N76W to along the border of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica to 08.5N100W to 10N112W to 11N128W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N128W to 10N135.5W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 10N137.5W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N
between 77W and 85W, from 06N to 08N between 100W and 104W, from
06N to 11N between 112W and 116W, from 07N to 10N between 120W
and 126W, and from 09.5N and 14N between 110W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the Gulf of California as
troughing prevails over the Baja California Peninsula. Seas are
1 to 3 ft in this region, except higher near the entrance.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore
waters of Mexico under weak ridging. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed
NW and S and are noted offshore of Baja, and seas of 5 to 6 ft in
S swell are occurring offshore of southern Mexico, locally to 7
ft well offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec near some convection
associated with a tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N gap winds
will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high
pressure builds over central Mexico. Farther south, moderate E
winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, will occur
well offshore of southern Mexico through late this week.
Elsewhere, localized moderate SE to SW gap winds are expected in
the Gulf of California into Mon. Fresh to strong S to SE winds
will then develop over the northern Gulf early on Tue and
continue through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert
Southwest.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft also extend
through the waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala.
South of the monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail.
Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and
South American waters.

For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of
Papagayo today, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally rough
seas then expected tonight through late week as high pressure
builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW
swell will propagate through the South American waters starting
later today, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia through at least the middle of this week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1033 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near
42N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the belt
from 11N to 17N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner with
mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in advancing southerly swell
across the waters south of 06N. North of 27N, 6 to around 8 ft
seas in fresh northerly swell are present. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in
mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
this week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Locally
rough seas will be possible north of 28N into early this
afternoon. Elsewhere, occasionally fresh trade winds will
generate short-period rough seas, from 10N to 15N west of 130W,
through midweek. A new S to SW swell will propagate through the
southern waters over the next several days, promoting rough seas
south of 05N. Looking ahead, a new N swell may lead to rough seas
north of 25N by midweek.

$$
Lewitsky