393
AXPZ20 KNHC 130827
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern portion of the tropical
eastern Pacific Ocean along 81W from Panama to near 03N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted N of 03N and E of 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W to 09N124W to 08N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N between 87W and
108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge
southeastward to just W of the Revillagigedo Islands. This
pattern supports moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across
the Baja offshore waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW
swell. A surface trough extends across the Gulf of California
along 110W to south of Baja California. Mainly moderate winds are
on either side of the trough in the central and southern Gulf of
California, with light and variable winds in the northern Gulf
of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California,
except to 4 ft near the entrance. Gentle winds dominate the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for S of 14N,
where the monsoon trough has lift N to. S of the trough, moderate
to locally fresh SW winds prevail. Seas through the waters S of
Baja California are 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.
Thunderstorms persist across the waters south of 17N and east of
105W. North of 15N away from any convection and extending to
offshore Jalisco, smoke from agricultural fires may be
restricting visibility somewhat over area waters.

For the forecast, troughing will extend from the Gulf of
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands with broad ridging
northwest of there. A relatively tight pressure gradient will
yield an increase in winds on both sides of the troughing into
the weekend. NW swell will impact waters offshore Baja California
this weekend into early next week, leading to seas of 8 to 13 ft
north of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun. A broad area of low pressure
could form late this week a couple of hundred nautical miles off
the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some slow development
is possible this weekend and early next week while the system
meanders near the coast. Thunderstorms will impact the waters
offshore southern Mexico through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends along the
coast of Guatemala then across El Salvador. Mainly moderate
southerly winds prevail across area waters. Seas are generally 4
to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 5 ft inside the Gulf of Panama
and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous
thunderstorms will dominate the region through the end of the
week. A broad area of low pressure could form Fri a couple of
hundred nautical miles off the coast of southern Mexico or
Guatemala. Some slow development is possible this weekend and
early next week while the system meanders near the coast. This
will allow for the monsoon trough to lift even farther northward
toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 90W
increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas
of 8 to 12 ft at times, highest late weekend into early next
week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SW winds are expected to develop
west of Colombia Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri night
and Sat before diminishing. Seas are likely build to around 8 ft
there with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N122W to 25N128W with moderate
to locally fresh winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the W of it.
Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the waters north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, with mainly gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas in mixed swell west of 110W. To the east of 110W, fresh to
locally strong winds are south of the monsoon trough north of 03N,
along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell are elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week, with seas building to 8 to 13 ft by the end of the
weekend. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be
fresh to strong today between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7
to 10 ft. Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by
the end of the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will
persist near the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through at
least the next couple of days.

$$
Konarik