058
AXPZ20 KNHC 130242
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern portion of the tropical
eastern Pacific Ocean along 80W, from 14N in the SW Caribbean
Sea to across the Gulf of Panama, moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N
and E of 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 08N114W to 10N134W to
08N137W. The ITCZ extends from 08N137W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 17N
between 87W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N
to 08N between 106W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern
supports moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja
offshore waters between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo
Islands, and gentle to moderate NW winds to the north of Punta
Eugenia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. A surface
trough extends across the Gulf of California along 110W to south
of Baja California. Mainly moderate winds are on either side of
the trough in the central and southern Gulf of California, with
light and variable winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the
entrance. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and
NW swell. Scattered thunderstorms persist across the waters
south of 17N and east of 105W. North of 12N away from any
convection and extending to offshore Jalisco, smoke from
agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat over
area waters.

For the forecast, troughing will extend from the Gulf of
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands with broad ridging
northwest of there. A relatively tight pressure gradient will
yield an increase in winds on both sides of the troughing through
the next several days. NW swell will impact waters offshore Baja
California this weekend, leading to seas of 8 to 13 ft north of
Cabo San Lazaro. A broad area of low pressure could form late
this week a couple of hundred nautical miles off the coast of
southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some slow development is possible
this weekend and early next week while the system meanders near
the coast. Thunderstorms will impact the waters offshore southern
Mexico through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends along the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador to across Nicaragua. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds prevail across area waters. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 5 ft inside the Gulf
of Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous
thunderstorms will dominate the region into the weekend. A broad
area of low pressure could form late this week a couple of
hundred nautical miles off the coast of southern Mexico or
Guatemala. Some slow development is possible this weekend and
early next week while the system meanders near the coast. This
will allow for the monsoon trough to lift even farther northward
toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 90W
increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas
of 8 to 12 ft at times, highest late weekend into early next
week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SW winds are expected to develop
west of Colombia Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri night
and Sat before diminishing. Seas may build to around 8 ft there
with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N123W to 26N127W with moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft behind it. Otherwise,
broad ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in
mixed swell west of 110W. To the east of 110W, fresh to locally
strong winds are south of the monsoon trough north of 03N per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW
swell are elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward may
dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next week,
with seas building to 8 to 13 ft by the end of the weekend. SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be fresh to
strong into Thu between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 10
ft. Similar winds and seas may return there by the end of the
weekend into early next week. Convection is expect to persist
near the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through at least
the next couple of days.

$$
Konarik