Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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933 FXUS64 KEPZ 051731 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1131 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Hot temperatures are expected for the rest of the workweek with afternoon highs near or above 100 degrees in the lowlands. Moisture increases into the weekend, bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Strong downdraft winds are the main threat with this activity. Temperatures cool to near normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The upper ridge to the west will creep into the region today, allowing for more subsident flow and mainly dry conditions. A weakness in the ridge in eastern NM will allow for some moisture advection for eastern areas. This may be enough to spark a few showers or storms in the Sacs during the afternoon. With large dew point depressions and inverted-V soundings, gusty winds are the main hazard. The activity dissipates this evening as we lose diurnal heating. Temperatures today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching near Heat Advisory criteria along the lower RGV. Light southerly winds of 5-10 mph are expected. For Thursday, the upper-level high settles overhead, resulting in the hottest day of this stretch. Temps have been consistent over the past few days, right around 106 for KELP with potential for 108. No changes to the Heat Advisories in this forecast package. All of the lowlands are forecast to approach or exceed 100 with 90s in places like Silver City. In terms of storm potential, Thursday doesn`t look widespread or anything, but there may be just enough surface moisture (Td in the 30s-low 40s) to trigger a few cells over the mountains. Eastern areas will have the better chance of activity from orographic lift and/or reaching the convective temp. With dew point depressions near 60 degrees, any storm that develops has the potential to produce strong downdraft/dry microburst winds Thursday afternoon. Dry lightning is another threat as the dry lower levels evaporate most if not all rainfall that is produced. This trend will continue through the weekend as enough moisture remains and the upper high drifts to the east, creating a quasi- monsoonal setup. PWs stay 25-50% above normal with the higher terrain most likely to see daily afternoon storms. Gusty outflows will slosh about in the lowlands into the evening each day, possibly triggering new activity. DCAPE values approach 2000 J/kg, so strong downdrafts remain a threat into early next week. Precip totals are expected to be light due to the deep dry layer the rain has to overcome to reach the surface. As the high moves off to the east and weakens, temperatures cool to near or even below average early next week. Friday`s temps look very similar to Wednesday, but the uncertainty in cloud cover and storm coverage on Friday keeps us from extending the Heat Advisory another day. The model consensus for early next week is for a cut-off low off the Baja to be swept up in the main flow on Sunday, allowing the upper ridge to build in to our south. Temperatures look to rebound into the middle of next week with westerly flow clearing out most of the moisture. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR next 24 hours. Mainly south to southwest winds 8 KTS or less, but winds may be variable at times. An isolated thunderstorm is possible in the Sacramento Mountains, dissipating by sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Through Thursday, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast. Moisture levels increase slightly for the rest of the week, especially in eastern areas. For Wednesday, conditions will be mostly quiet except for in the Sacramento Mountains where there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Dry lightning and gusty and erratic winds are possible this afternoon. The winds will be generally light otherwise from the south and temperatures above normal. Wednesday overnight recovery will be fair to good. For Thursday, there will be a better chance of storms in the mountains as temperatures reach their hottest of the period. For the rest of the period, there will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the mountains each afternoon and evening. The winds will be light to breezy while the temperatures gradually cool to near normal early next week. Mostly elevated conditions are expected Friday onward. The min RHs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be 5-12% across most of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be 15-25%. The ventilation rates will be good to very good through Thursday, then very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 104 76 107 80 / 0 0 10 20 Sierra Blanca 96 69 99 72 / 10 10 20 20 Las Cruces 103 70 105 73 / 0 0 10 20 Alamogordo 100 67 102 73 / 10 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 76 55 79 57 / 20 0 30 10 Truth or Consequences 99 71 102 73 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 94 65 96 67 / 10 10 20 30 Deming 102 66 104 68 / 0 0 10 30 Lordsburg 99 66 102 69 / 0 0 20 30 West El Paso Metro 101 74 103 77 / 0 0 10 20 Dell City 100 66 103 70 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 103 68 106 72 / 10 10 20 20 Loma Linda 95 70 97 73 / 10 10 10 20 Fabens 103 70 106 75 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 100 69 102 71 / 0 0 10 30 White Sands HQ 101 76 103 78 / 0 0 10 20 Jornada Range 100 66 103 68 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 102 65 104 67 / 0 0 10 20 Columbus 101 71 104 73 / 0 0 10 30 Orogrande 99 69 102 73 / 10 0 10 20 Mayhill 86 58 90 61 / 30 0 30 10 Mescalero 88 58 89 60 / 20 0 20 10 Timberon 86 56 88 58 / 20 0 30 10 Winston 92 61 94 62 / 10 0 20 20 Hillsboro 97 67 99 69 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 99 62 102 65 / 0 0 10 20 Lake Roberts 94 61 96 64 / 10 10 20 30 Hurley 96 63 99 65 / 10 0 10 30 Cliff 102 62 104 66 / 0 0 20 20 Mule Creek 96 66 99 69 / 0 0 20 20 Faywood 96 66 98 69 / 10 0 10 30 Animas 99 66 102 69 / 0 0 20 30 Hachita 99 66 102 69 / 0 0 10 30 Antelope Wells 98 66 101 69 / 0 0 20 40 Cloverdale 93 66 97 69 / 0 0 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...99