948
FXUS64 KEPZ 070551
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1151 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Temperatures will remain hot throughout the period. Temperatures
will decrease some through Monday before warming again into next
week. There will also be a chance for showers and thunderstorms
though little rainfall is expected. Dry lightning and gusty winds
will be the main concerns with any storms. The greatest chance for
precipitation will be Friday with Tuesday the lowest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

It`s hot and going to continue to be hot. That is most of the
weather picture. It is a bit after 1:30 PM, and KELP is already
having its hottest day of the year, so far. All lowland locations
are already well into the 90s and 100s. I expanded the heat
advisory to the remainder of Dona Ana County and added Luna
County given current temperatures and tomorrow`s forecast. UL
ridge is more or less centered over us though water vapor
satellite shows the ridge axis a bit elongated from near Las
Vegas, NV arcing across AZ into Central NM. Some moisture
continues to creep in beneath the ridge, so our mountains have an
outside shot for a shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds and dry
lightning would be the main concern. The UL high will shift to the
east allowing southerly flow to develop with an increase in
moisture. PWat values will increase from around 0.5" to north of
0.75". Showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase
accordingly, especially for the mountains. Nevertheless it will be
almost as hot as today, so min RH values will still be in the
teens and single digits. CAMs suggest at least scattered coverage,
but much of what falls will never reach the ground. Dry lightning
and gusty winds will remain a concern for tomorrow.

Going into the weekend, an U/L trough will try and push northwest
into the Chihuahua desert while the high continues east and
weakens. Temperatures will trend downward, but this will also
cause moisture to begin trending downward as well. Isolated
showers and dry thunderstorm chances will be possible through the
weekend but with less expected coverage than Friday.

As we head into next week, the UL ridge, which is originating from
Mexico, where historical heat is occurring, will begin to build
northward. Moisture will decrease Monday and even more Tuesday
before some more moisture tries to slip in Wednesday.
Temperatures will begin to increase again, and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Wednesday, primarily
over mountains. Current forecast shows us needing more heat
advisories by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW130-BKN250. The winds will be light below 10
kts and variable through 19Z. The winds will then become low end
breezy 9 to 14 kts with gust up to 22 kts and out from the
southwest thereafter until 01Z Saturday. There may be a few VCTS
of each terminal after 18Z (not mentioned in the TAFs). There will
be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The main concern for the period will be isolated dry lightning.
Moisture has increased some for the area, mainly helping overnight
recoveries. By afternoon though, the much above normal temperatures
are still allowing min RH values to drop into the lower teens and
single digits. Thus, precipitation from any showers or storms will
struggle to reach the ground leading to the dry lightning concern.
Highest probability for showers, thunderstorms, and subsequent dry
lightning will be for Friday, but at least isolated coverage will
continue each afternoon into Monday. Temperatures will gradually
cool through the period as well. Gusty winds will also be a
concern with any shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, winds will
top out around 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. Venting will range
very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 106  79 103 /  10  20  30  20
Sierra Blanca            70  97  69  95 /  20  40  30  20
Las Cruces               72 105  71 101 /  10  20  30  20
Alamogordo               72 102  65  99 /  10  30  20  20
Cloudcroft               57  77  54  75 /  10  50  20  30
Truth or Consequences    72 100  70  99 /   0  30  20  20
Silver City              67  94  64  90 /  10  30  20  30
Deming                   68 103  68  99 /  10  20  30  20
Lordsburg                69 102  68  96 /  10  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro       77 103  76 100 /  10  20  30  20
Dell City                70 102  68 100 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Hancock             72 105  69 102 /  20  40  30  20
Loma Linda               72  97  70  93 /  10  30  30  20
Fabens                   75 105  72 101 /  10  30  30  20
Santa Teresa             72 102  71  99 /  10  20  30  20
White Sands HQ           77 102  76  99 /  10  30  30  20
Jornada Range            67 102  66  99 /   0  20  30  20
Hatch                    67 104  67 101 /   0  20  30  20
Columbus                 73 104  75  99 /  10  20  30  20
Orogrande                72 101  69  98 /  10  30  30  20
Mayhill                  61  89  58  87 /  10  50  20  40
Mescalero                59  89  56  87 /  10  40  20  30
Timberon                 57  87  55  85 /  10  40  20  30
Winston                  62  92  60  91 /  10  50  20  40
Hillsboro                70  98  67  96 /  10  30  20  30
Spaceport                65 101  63  99 /   0  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             63  95  60  91 /  10  30  20  30
Hurley                   65  97  63  93 /  10  20  20  30
Cliff                    65 102  63  98 /  10  30  10  20
Mule Creek               68  97  66  93 /  10  20  10  20
Faywood                  69  97  65  93 /  10  30  20  20
Animas                   69 101  70  94 /  20  30  20  20
Hachita                  70 102  70  95 /  20  30  20  20
Antelope Wells           69 100  70  93 /  20  40  30  30
Cloverdale               70  95  69  88 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ407-410-411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson