597
FXUS64 KEPZ 290005
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
605 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Mainly quiet weather conditions are expected through early next
week. The winds each afternoon will be breezy with the high
temperatures above the normal. Today El Paso has seen its first
100 degree day; however, triple digit heat will return this
weekend and continue through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly sunny, temperatures are on the
very warm/hot side with El Paso already in the lower 100s, and
the winds light to breezy. There are a few isolated passing
showers/virga and mostly dry lightning across the Hudspeth and
parts of Otero counties due to some mid level moisture moving
through those areas. For tonight, any storms that develop this
afternoon will diminish after the sun sets. The winds will become
mainly light especially after midnight with the skies with mostly
clear to partly cloudy. Due to this, the low temperatures on
Wednesday morning will be above the normal for this time of the
year. For Wednesday, we will be under a zonal/quasi-zonal flow
aloft as a dry shallow short move across the area. The winds are
forecast to be similar to today and the high temperatures in the
afternoon just a degree or two cooler than what they will be this
afternoon. Overnight Wednesday, conditions will remain quiet.

For the rest of the period, a dryline will stay mainly east of
our CWA. However the position of the dryline will vary from the
day to day and depending on how far west it move, there could be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms before the end of the
period. As for now, storm chances have been kept out of the
forecast as models are suggesting that this dryline will stay
mainly outside of our CWA each afternoon through early next week.
A deeper shortwave will move in toward the weekend, which could
bring breezier winds by then. As we remain under a dry west and
west southwesterly flow, the temperatures will remain above the
normal, with triple digit heat returning to El Paso this weekend
and possibly into early next. The high temperatures for El Paso
will be around 100 on Saturday, but may reach to 103 on Tuesday
and or Wednesday of next week as a ridge of high pressure
amplifies across the South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We saw some
puffy cumulus clouds around KELP this afternoon, but those clouds
won`t last much longer. For tonight we will have unlimited
ceilings and those mostly clear skies will continue into
Wednesday. The low end gusty winds will continue for a couple of
more hours before dropping off, much like last night. We will see
generally light winds tonight and then the low end gusty winds
will return on Wednesday afternoon. It will be another very warm
day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90`s
or even touching 100, so anyone outside on the gates or ramps
should take breaks and stay hydrated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Mainly dry conditions are expected for the rest of today with
just a few isolated showers and or thunderstorms across the
Hudpseth and Otero counties. Tonight`s recovery will be poor to
fair. For Wednesday, dry weather conditions will continue with the
min RHs mainly in the single digits. The 20ft winds will be light
to low end breezy and temperatures above the normal. Wednesday
overnight recovery will be similar to that of tonight`s recovery,
but slightly drier. For the rest of the period, quiet weather is
expected with very low humidity and breezy afternoon. The
temperatures will continue to be above the average through the
first half of the weekend. With that being said, fire weather
conditions will be elevated to near critical through the end of
the period.

The min RHs on Wednesday will be generally below 10% across much
of the area except in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be
10 to 11%. The min RHs on Thursday will continue to be below 10%
across much of the area, but will decrease by a percent or two in
the Sacramento Mountains. The ventilation rates will be mostly
excellent on both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  99  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  93  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               62  97  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  94  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               47  72  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    60  94  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  95  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  93  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  96  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  97  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  99  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   65  98  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  94  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           68  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  94  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    56  96  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 64  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  93  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  84  51  84 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                50  83  49  82 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 50  81  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  53  87  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                59  92  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  93  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  86  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  90  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  93  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  93  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  93  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  93  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice