312
FXUS64 KEPZ 091732
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1132 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Our stretch of hot weather will continue, although some clouds and
isolated thunderstorms today and Monday will keep temperatures
down a bit. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures will climb back to near record levels as our sub-
tropical high builds over the area. The high recedes some by
Friday and Saturday, perhaps lowering temperatures a few degrees
and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms back to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Baja low has moved up over southern Arizona this morning. The low
will drift up to northern Arizona tonight with associated trough
moving north across the CWA. This will give the area a chance of
some showers this morning and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Next Pacific low moves to just west of the
Baja next several days and becomes cut off and nearly stationary
well into the new week. This allows Mexican sub-tropical high to
build in over the Desert Southwest and gradually return us to the
furnace.

In the meantime Monday will still see some residual moisture
around and perhaps a stray shower/thunderstorm, mainly over the
mountains. Temperatures Monday could remain below 100 for most
sites (that being the last time for quite awhile). By Tuesday the
upper high is well in place and 850mb temps begin to climb.
Tuesday high temps nearing advisory level again and the period
Wednesday through Friday will be near record level highs for many
places. Much of the lowlands will likely need more Heat Advisories
and El Paso and the lower valley may Excessive Hear Warnings,
especially Thursday. We will likely approach record heat Wednesday
into the weekend. There is still some doubt about the heat Friday
and Saturday as the upper high recedes southward as that Pacific
low cuts across the area. Best guess is some cooler air moves in
at mid/upper levels, but low level air (as indicated by 850mb
temps) remains largely unchanged. Airmass will be drier too, all
pointing to little relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mid and high
level clouds decreasing after 00Z. Very breezy winds that are
being seen at KELP and KLRU should calm to 15G25KT in the next
couple hours. Breezy winds will continue this afternoon out of
the southwest becoming around 10KT after 02Z. Virga showers should
generally continue this afternoon with thunderstorms possible near
the Sacramento Mtns. A boundary will push in from the northeast
tonight switching wind directions northerly around 06Z-08Z for
KTCS and KDMN. Winds shift easterly in the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Elevated to near-critical conditions to continue through this
entire week as hot temperatures will persist. Slight chances of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and Monday afternoon, but
rainfall total potential on the skimpy side. Not much chance of
rain remainder of week and by Wednesday into the weekend we will
see near record high temperatures. At this time Friday looks to
have the highest afternoon winds and thus a risk for RFW
conditions.

Min RHs: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday. Mountains 10-15% Gila
through Friday and 15-25% Sacramentos through Friday. Vent rates
very good to excellent through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 100  74 104 /  10  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            68  92  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               70  97  68 103 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo               66  94  65  99 /  20  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               50  74  49  78 /  30  40  10  10
Truth or Consequences    71  93  68  99 /  20  20  10  10
Silver City              62  87  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Deming                   66  97  63 102 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg                66  95  63 101 /  10  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       73  97  71 102 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City                66  95  63 102 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             66 100  65 104 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               65  90  65  95 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   69  99  67 104 /  10  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             69  98  67 101 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           75  95  74 101 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            65  95  62 100 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                    65  97  63 102 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                 71  97  68 101 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  94  66  99 /  20  20  10   0
Mayhill                  53  82  53  89 /  30  40  10  10
Mescalero                53  84  52  88 /  30  40  10  10
Timberon                 51  81  51  87 /  20  30  10  10
Winston                  56  86  55  92 /  20  30  10  10
Hillsboro                65  92  64  97 /  20  20  10  10
Spaceport                63  93  60  99 /  20  20  10   0
Lake Roberts             57  90  56  94 /  10  10  10  10
Hurley                   59  92  59  97 /  10  10   0  10
Cliff                    57  96  55 100 /  10  10   0  10
Mule Creek               52  90  51  96 /  10  10   0  10
Faywood                  62  91  62  96 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   65  95  63 101 /  10   0   0  10
Hachita                  67  95  63 100 /  10   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           66  95  64 100 /  10   0  10  10
Cloverdale               64  89  63  96 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher