726
FXUS64 KEPZ 122352
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
552 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Our current heat wave looks to continue for the next several
days. Temperatures will reach their peak Thursday before dropping
back a few degrees heading into the weekend thanks to a weak
weather system moving through. Rainfall will be limited to only
the higher terrain with this system, leaving most of the area with
a continuation of dry conditions and dangerous heat levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A strong subtropical ridge has become established over the region
and is expected to strengthen further through the day Thursday.
This will likely result in the hottest temperatures to date for
the Borderland with record setting temps possible for Thursday.
Meanwhile, an upper low that has been lingering west of the Baja
is progged to begin lifting northeastward Thursday through
Saturday. This feature should pass just north and west of our
region Friday into Saturday, which will serve to flatten our
ridge slightly. In turn we will see temperatures drop back a few
degrees for the weekend, but readings will still be several
degrees above seasonal norms as our current string of triple digit
days will certainly extend through the upcoming weekend and
beyond.

Meanwhile, as the upper trough tracks by, there will be some mid
and high level moisture drawn up over the region Friday. The NBM
has been persistent with introducing low POP`s for most areas
Friday, however we feel this is more of an artifact being
introduced by climatology as opposed to true forcing from the
trough. There will be a slight chance for some light precipitation
over the Gila as well as the ongoing threat for some isolated
thunderstorms over the Sacramento`s during the afternoon hours.
However the current forecast package keeps the majority of the
region high and dry right through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions persist with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
SW winds continue the next few hours with light breezes becoming
calm tonight. KELP and KLRU will begin to see an east/southeast
wind tonight starting around midnight or so but southwest winds
return for much of the area by around 18Z or so.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain hot and dry, but enough moisture will remain over
the Sacramento Mountains to allow isolated thunderstorms with
gusty winds and dry lightning the main concern. Elsewhere, min RH
values will drop to 10 percent or less with very hot temperatures.
Winds will top out around 10 MPH through Thursday afternoon. On
Friday, a passing trough will increase winds ranging 15 to 20 MPH
for areas west of the Rio Grande and 10 to 15 MPH for areas east
of the Rio. Areas west of the Rio Grande (Zones 110 and 111) are
under a Fire Weather Watch as a result for critical fire
conditions.

Venting will range good to very good through Thursday, increasing
to excellent for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 110  81 108 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70 104  72 102 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               72 108  74 105 /   0   0  10   0
Alamogordo               69 106  73 103 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               56  82  57  79 /  10  10  10  20
Truth or Consequences    72 104  73 100 /  10   0  20  10
Silver City              67  98  69  94 /   0   0  20  10
Deming                   67 107  70 104 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg                67 105  72 102 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       77 108  79 105 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                69 107  71 105 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             71 109  72 108 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               70 102  73 100 /   0  10  10   0
Fabens                   72 109  76 108 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             70 107  74 105 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           77 105  79 103 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            67 106  70 103 /  10   0  10  10
Hatch                    67 107  69 105 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 72 107  74 105 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande                70 105  74 103 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                  60  96  62  93 /  10  20  10  20
Mescalero                59  92  60  89 /  10  10  10  30
Timberon                 57  90  58  87 /  10  10  10  10
Winston                  62  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  30
Hillsboro                70 101  71  98 /  10   0  20  20
Spaceport                64 104  67 102 /  10   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             62  97  64  93 /   0   0  20  10
Hurley                   64 101  67  98 /   0   0  20  10
Cliff                    62 108  66 105 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek               67 100  70  96 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  69 100  69  97 /   0   0  20  10
Animas                   69 105  72 104 /   0  10  10   0
Hachita                  67 104  71 102 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           69 104  71 103 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               69  99  69  98 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     for TXZ418-419-423-424.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110-111.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher