Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
389
FNUS74 KEPZ 260249
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Moser Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
849 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0012 MDT on May 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions will persist on Sunday with no precipitation in
sight. The min RHs will be around 16%. The 20ft winds will be
low end breezy around 13 mph and from the west with temperature
below the normal. The ventilation rate will be very good. Sunday
overnight recovery will be fair. For Monday, dry conditions will
continue with a decrease in the min RH of 10%. The 20ft winds will
be light 6 to 8 mph and from the southwest. The temperature will
be near the normal. The ventilation rate will continue to be very
good. With that said, there will be no fire weather concerns on
Sunday; however, fire weather conditions will become near
critical on Monday. For the rest of the period, there will be no
improvement in the fire weather conditions as concerns will be
near critical stage.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 11 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (50000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (7900 knot-ft) late in the
night increasing to very good (116900 knot-ft)
in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........6 6 7 4 4 1 1 1 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 46 44 43 50 57 62 66 67
RH..............29 32 35 38 33 27 21 17 16
20 ft wind......W 15 W 15 W 14 W 12 W 12 W 11 W 11 W 11 W 12
20 ft wind gust.28 28 25 23 23 20 20 20 21
Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 400 2800 2800 6000 6000 7600 7600
Transport wind..W 23 W 23 W 23 W 20 W 20 W 21 W 21 W 24 W 24
Haines index....3 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 8 50 50 117 117 146 146
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (127500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(3500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 4 5 5 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 57 52 50 48 46
RH..............17 20 23 22 25 28
20 ft wind......W 9 W 9 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 W 5
20 ft wind gust.18 18 13 12 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....7100 7100 500 500 300 300
Transport wind..W 19 W 19 W 14 W 14 W 10 W 10
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..128 128 5 5 4 4
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 8 mph with
gusts to around 17 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (30700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (116000 knot-ft)
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........4 3 5 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............45 57 67 72
RH..............29 22 15 11
20 FT wind......SW 4G14 S 4G16 SW 6G20 SW 8G22
Mix hgt (ft)....6100 6100 11000 11000
Transport wind..W 7 W 7 SW 9 SW 13
Haines index....5 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31 31 108 116
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds around 6 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds around 7 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 8 mph.
$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Brian Anderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414853.3/EPZ
.DELDT 05/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brian.d.anderson@usda.gov